2010 NFL Team Odds, Preview, & Predictions- New England Patriots
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New England Current Odds to Win:
Patriots AFC East Odds – 5/4
Patriots AFC Championship Lines – 6/1
Patriots 2011 Super Bowl Futures – 12/1
New England Patriots Season Over/Under Win Total – 9.5
Last season New England went 10-6 and won the AFC East division title. While this would be considered an accomplishment by most teams, this was actually below expectations for a team that has won six divisional titles in the last seven years and has averaged 12.8 wins per season from 2003 to 2008.
To make matters worse, the Patriots perfect 8-0 record at home during the regular season was ruined by a 33-14 loss to Baltimore in Foxboro in the Wildcard round of the playoffs.
The main reason that many experts expect New England to once again be one of the top teams in the AFC is the health of quarterback Tom Brady. In 2008 he went down in the first game of the season with a torn ACL. He was physically ready to go by the start of the 2009 season, but mentally he never looked completely comfortable in the pocket. He did put up some big numbers by throwing for 4,398 yards and 28 TD’s but his 13 interceptions were the second highest single season total in his career. Almost two years removed from surgery, he is fully healed and ready to return to the form that has led this team to multiple Super Bowl appearances and wins over the past decade.
The biggest concern for the Patriots this season is the health of team’s No.1 receiver; Wes Welker. Welker went down last year with a knee injury in the final regular season game, but is expected to be ready to go for their season opener against Cincinnati. He led the team last year with 123 receptions for 1,348. WR Randy Moss was second on the team with 83 receptions for 1,264 yards.
Another addition to the passing game is second round draft pick TE Ron Gronkowski. A strong presence at tight end has been lacking the last few seasons and head coach Bill Belichick is hoping Gronkowski can immediately fill the void.
New England’s offense finished the year ranked 12th in the league in rushing behind the running of Laurence Maroney as he led the team in rushing with 757 yards on a 194 carries. The Patriots also have veteran backs Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, and Kevin Faulk on the roster, but expect Maroney to carry much of the load in 2010 as well.
One area where New England has not measured up to its lofty standards is on defense. Last year’s unit finished the 2009 season ranked 11th overall, 12th against the pass, and 13th against the run.
Not bad numbers, but not good enough to win a championship. In an effort to bring in some much needed youth and depth, the Patriots used the draft to add CB Devin McCourty in the first round, DE Jermaine Cunningham in the second, and LB Brandon Spikes in the third. Another plus is that CB Leigh Bodden and LB’s Derrick Burgess and Gary Guyton will all be back after signing new deals.
The first big test this season will be in Week 2 when the Patriots travel to the New Meadowlands Stadium to play the New York Jets. The Jets are currently listed at 7/5 odds to win the division as they have Super Bowl aspirations of their own. The two teams will meet again in Week 13 at Foxboro.
The outcome of these two games could most likely determine whether New England wins a division title or makes it into the playoffs as a wildcard team. With the overall talent both teams bring to the table, these games could come down to coaching; pitting the wiley old head coach Belichick against the Jets upstart head coach Rex Ryan in a chess match.
Given this scenario, I’m leaning towards New England to once again come out on top.
2010 Prediction: 1st in the AFC East
Win Total: OVER
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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.
