NFL: TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT
Raiders vs. Chiefs 1pm EST
If you only bet on one NFL game this week, you’d be wise to make it this one.
Last week, I guided you to paydirt as I told you to take the Arizona Cardinals in San Francisco, so I hope you listened.
For those that may be new here at Sportsbook.com, over the last 18 NFL regular season weeks, my Pick of the Week has only failed to cash in three times, going 14-3-1 over that span. If that’s not a solid payout rate, I don’t know what is.
One thing’s for certain. If you like winners, check back each week as I hand-pick my favorite matchup of the week.
Last weekend I sided with Sportsbook.com bettors, something I normally don’t do, when I took the Cards as road favorites for Week 1. This week though, I have to disagree with the 71% of bettors banking on the Kansas City Chiefs to cover a 3 ½-point spread when they host the Oakland Raiders on Sunday.
Before you go any further, I will let you know a few things:
- Yes, I watched Oakland get blown out on Monday night
- Yes, I know about rumblings and infighting among the Oakland coaches
- Yes, I know it’s first-year starting QB JaMarcus Russell against veteran Damon Huard
- No, I don’t care about any of the above
The biggest problem bettors’ face is the ability to let go of what happened the previous week and realize that a new week offers a new opportunity. More so than any other sport, NFL teams adjust and make changes. No matter how bad a team looks one week, they can look like an entirely different unit the following game.
That’s exactly what I expect to happen with the Oakland Raiders defense. Pro Bowl cornerback DeAngelo Hall and Super Bowl winning safety Gibril Wilson were embarrassed by rookie receiver Eddie Royal last week but who does Kansas City have with the skill set Royal has? No-one.
Dwayne Bowe is a solid second-year receiver but doesn’t have the speed or quickness that Royal possesses and Damon Huard, while a veteran quarterback, isn’t exactly Jay Cutler material.
Call me crazy, but as bad as Oakland played, I actually picked out a lot of positives. Obviously, there’s not much positive as far as the supposed dominant secondary goes, but if they have any pride they’ll bounce back with a big game Sunday.
On offense, Russell threw for two touchdown passes in just his second career start and his 180 passing yards could have easily increased if receiver Ronald Curry didn’t drop several balls. One could argue that if not for a redzone fumble by Russell and a dropped pass by Curry in the second quarter, the game could’ve been much different.
You should also know that the Raiders rushed for 152 yards on Monday night; Justin Fargas picking up 97 yards with rookie Darren McFadden picking up 46 yards on nine carries.
McFadden looked explosive and it was surprising that the Raiders didn’t use him more often. He did leave the game late with a neck stinger but is not on the injury report this week.
Expect McFadden and Fargas to put up big numbers and control this weekend’s game. Oakland won at Arrowhead Stadium last year, despite only passing for 170 yards and the defense has too much talent to be picked apart by the Chiefs.