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Handicapping Week 3 NFL Preseason Games


Mr East

Mr East

It is often called the most important game, and the only important game of the entire NFLX. Some coaches may agree, or disagree, but the NFLX week 3 is a dress rehersal for week 1, as the starters get a lot of minutes, and teams find out where they stand on both sides of the ball.I decided to take a look at 2 things, as it relates to what significance week 3 in the NFLX has on game one of the opening season, and also take a look at NFLX totals that are 40 or higher. First, let’s start with week 3 of the NFLX, and if it is a predictor of what will happen in week 1 of the regular season.


This is not a lot of data, but what it does show, is their is a negative correlation to winning ATS in week 3 of the NFLX, vs winning in week 1 ATS. Last year, in NFL week 1, there were 5 matchups, of teams that won ATS in week 3 of the NFLX, playing against teams that lost in week 3 of the NFLX ATS. The results show that the losers of week 3 of the NFLX ATS, that played against winners, won the ATS battle in week one by a 3-2 score or 60%. Going back to the 2007 season, losers prevailed once again in week 1, where they went 2-1 ATS, and similar results in 2006, as the losres prevailed 3-1 ATS.

Sports Betting at the Sportsbook

That shows 3 straight years, albeit very few games, where the losers came out in the money, with an overall win rate of 67% (8-4). This may be meaningless based on how few games, but something to watch going forward, and if nothing else, it says beware of putting a few sheckles on the week 3 NFLX ATS winner vs a loser in game 1.

Looking at NFLX totals, it is not very often you see them set at 40 or higher, as scoring is usually minimized.

So is there value on any given game when the oddsmakers reach up and touch the 40 marker in NFLX games?

There is apparently something to look at here. Games with a posted total of 40 or higher since 1996 in NFLX games have gone 58-45 to the UNDER which is 56.3%.

Looking at strictly week 3 games, when the oddsmakers treat these games more like a regular season game, which they are not, that under percentage jumps to 58.5%.

Looks like something to put in your arsenol and at the very least, if you don’t like the under in the totals set at 40+, it may be a good idea to stay away from the over! Wishing you the best in NFL & NCAAF betting this season!! EAST


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