Thursday NFL Betting – Bears Offer Value In Defensive Showdown
The Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins – two of the more unpredictable teams in the NFL this season – match wits on Thursday night. While the Dolphins are at home, the short week figures to be a tough break for them after suffering some key injuries last Sunday.
GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR NFL ATS STATS —>
Date/Time: Thursday, November 18th, 8:20 PM ET
Venue: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Broadcast: NFL NETWORK
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins Betting Lines from Just Bet
Money Line: Not available yet
Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Over/Under: 40
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How Can Chicago Win?
Avoid turnovers.
Time and time again, the Chicago Bears have shown that they are in fact a competent playoff contender in the NFC if they take care of the football and don’t make mistakes. But when quarterback Jay Cutler is forcing the ball and is giving away opportunities, the Bears tend to collapse.
On defense, the Bears are starting to round into the form they thought they’d be when they signed defensive end Julius Peppers. Outside of one bad outing against the New York Giants, the Bears are allowing just 69 rushing yards per game. Against the Miami Dolphins, who will be breaking in a new quarterback, stopping the running game will be critical.
And on third downs, only one team gets off the field better than the Bears. They are second in the NFL in opposing third-down converting percentage, which means they should be able to get the ball back to their offense very regularly on Thursday night.
How Can Miami Win?
Turnovers.
The Bears are ranked fifth from the bottom as far as giveaways go as they have coughed up 19 in 19 games. When you do the math, that’s an average of more than two per game and if they are that sloppy on the road in Miami, they won’t win.
Tyler Thigpen takes over the quarterback duties but for many Dolphins fans, the injuries to the Chads – Henne and Pennington – are actually a blessing in disguise. Pennington was a stop-gap and Henne is no longer the future, so it’s time to find out what Thigpen can bring.
Last week when he was thrown into the fire, he went four-of-six for 64 yards and a touchdown. He’ll need to be even sharper this week but he has a quality supporting cast around him.
The Dolphins just have to play their game: be patient, chip away and win field position, kick field goals when they can and don’t make mistakes. If Thigpen can avoid mistakes the Dolphins should be just fine.
Outlook
The Dolphins will be OK at the quarterback position with Thigpen taking over, but the bigger loss will be the one of left tackle Jake Long – if he has to exit the game. He’s expected to play, though, but there is no way that a torn labrum doesn’t affect his performance. He’s going up against Julius Peppers and that’s a big concern when he’s not 100%.
And throw in injuries to sack artist Cam Wake and safety Yeremiah Bell – both of whom are expected to play but won’t be 100% – and the Dolphins will be a tad limited.
The theme of this game will be turnovers. Whoever wins this battle will win the game. Normally, that arrow should point at the Dolphins but the Bears should have an easier time of things with key injuries to the Dolphins, so look for them to protect the ball a little better, intercept Thigpen a couple of times and earn the win.
Pick: Bears +1
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