GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-6) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3) NFL Free Pick – Odds – Handicapping Preview
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Date/Time: Saturday, January 15, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
Broadcast: NBC
Packers vs. Falcons Betting Lines from MySportsbook.com:
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Moneyline: Green Bay +115: Atlanta -135
Over/Under: 44.5 points
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In what should be the best of the Divisional Round games this weekend, the Green Bay Packers look to avenge an earlier loss in the Georgia Dome to the Atlanta Falcons. The Green Bay Packers have suddenly become the team to watch in the NFC but first they have to go into one of the toughest buildings in the NFL.
Green Bay was an early season pick to be here so why are we surprised? It’s true that the team struggled at times this season but the basic building blocks are still in place for this team.
Aaron Rodgers elevated to elite status last season and did not let down this season. He and the Packers had the 5th ranked passing game this season – 257.75 yards per game. Against Atlanta’s 22nd ranked passing defense, it appears that Jennings, Driver, James Jones and Aaron Rodgers are a total mismatch.
Somewhere along the line, the Packers 24th ranked rushing game found themselves an apparent gem. James Starks has been impressive and if nothing else his presence will set up Rodgers’ lethal play action!
Green Bay’s defense is all that is advertised going into Saturday’s game. They are 5th against the pass, a surprising 18th against the run and they allow the second lowest points per game in the NFL – 15.00 Clay Matthews, BJ Raji, AJ Hawk, Charles Woodson and company have been money all season long – they have held 13 of 17 of their opponents under 20 points! 
The Atlanta Falcons are home – right where they want to be, right where Matt Ryan has only lost twice in his first three seasons. The Falcons are a well balanced team that hopes to keep their home momentum going throughout the playoffs.
Atlanta finished the season with the NFL’s 15th ranked passing offense and the 12th best rushing offense. The offense was all about synergy between the run game and the passing game. Michael Turner was the most effective all around Falcon this season – his rushing set the stage for what the Falcons do. He had 110 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting and will be leaned heavily upon once again despite Green Bay’s super run defense.
The passing game counts on Turner to open things up down field for Matt Ryan and his Stud receivers. Roddy White is the go-to guy and Tony Gonzalez is there as a quality outlet. It will be interesting to see how Matt Ryan and Michael Turner handle the relentless Green Bay defense.
The Atlanta defense is nothing to write home about. They are 22nd in the NFL against the pass and 20th versus the run. Advantage Green Bay!
Betting Prediction:
The Green Bay Packers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games. In their last six games against Atlanta, the Packers are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Green Bay is just 1-5 SU in their six trips to the Georgia Dome.
The Atlanta Falcons are 9-1 SU in their last 19 games and are 8-1 SU in their last nine at home.
The Green Bay Packers seem to have elevated to a different plateau in the last two weeks – they kind of seem untouchable. I realize that the Falcons are very tough at home but the way that the Green Bay defense is playing and the way that the Packers offense is operating, I just can`t bet against it.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5
2 replies on “2011 NFL ATS Divisional Playoffs Pick: Packers vs. Falcons Preview”
Just like everyone else, no one gives the Falcons any respect. It doesn’t matter that they say we are ranked 22nd on defense vs the pass we’ve shown ourselves to be better than that. Its ranked that way cause all the focus is on the north teams. So you might want to rethink those bets buddy cause the Falcons are coming strong.
go birds