NFL Report – Titans vs. Steelers (Sept 10)
Line Movement
The first lines for Week 1 of the NFL regular season were posted way back in April at some sportsbooks with Pittsburgh initially installed as a 5-point favorite in this game. The line dropped to -4 ½ during the summer, but came back up to -5 during the preseason. This week the money has been coming in on Pittsburgh as the line now stands at -6.
The Over/Under was initially 35½ in April and dropped to 35 in June. This is still where it currently stands at most sportsbooks, although the money appears to be coming in on the Under and it has touched 34½ in some spots.
Pittsburgh opened as a -230 favorite on the moneyline and has now risen to -270. The Titans have gone from +190 to +230 at most sportsbooks. This current money-line gives Pittsburgh a 72% chance of winning the game straight-up.
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Injuries
Both teams enter tonight’s game healthy with no major injuries. Tennessee only has two players on the injury report with both TE Jared Cook (ankle) and WR Nate Washington (hamstring) being listed as questionable.
Pittsburgh LB Lawrence Timmons (ankle) is doubtful, while TE Sean McHugh and OG Darnell Stapleton are both on the injured reserve list with knee injuries. The Steelers will also likely be without their third-string quarterback as Dennis Dixon has a shoulder injury.
Weather
Weather is often an issue in Pittsburgh, but normally not in September. The forecast is calling for a 30% chance of rain showers on Thursday night with winds around 9 mph. The temperature will be 60 degrees.
Head-to-Head
These teams use to meet twice every season when they were both in the AFC Central division, but this is no longer the case since re-alignment took place in 2002. These teams have played three times in the past six seasons with Tennessee going 2-1 SU/ATS with all three games being decided by at least 17+ point margins.
The Titans won 30-13 as a 3-point road underdog in 2003, but the final score was very misleading as Pittsburgh held a 25-9 first down edge and a 376-198 total yard edge. The Steelers got their revenge in 2005 with an easy 34-7 win as a 7-point home favorite in which Pittsburgh held a 424-303 total yard edge and a +4 turnover margin. Tennessee won the most recent meeting last season in December 2008 with a 31-14 win as a 3-point home underdog, even though Pittsburgh held a 23-16 first down edge and a 374-323 total yard advantage. The Steelers lost because of a 4-0 turnover deficit in the game.
Super Bowl Champs
A popular betting system is to fade the defending Super Bowl champion in September. This method has shown some success in year’s past, but it does not work well in Week 1. In fact, the defending Super Bowl champion is a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the past eight years in their opening game with an average winning score of 26-12 and with an average pointspread of just -3½ per game.
Steve is on a 76-48 NFL run continues on Thursday night – Titans/Steelers (NBC) – 8:30 pm ET – Guaranteed Side that will WIN AGAIN!
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