Week 1: Bengals vs Patriots Free Prediction & Preview
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Week 1: Cincinnati at New England Matchup & Lines
Date/Time: Sunday, September 12, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Cincinnati vs New England Lines
Moneyline: Bengals +175, Patriots -210
NFL betting favorite: Patriots -4.5
Over/Under: 45
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Cincinnati Bengals
Apparently winning the AFC North title and going 4-0 against Baltimore and Pittsburgh last season weren’t enough to earn the Cincinnati Bengals respect. They open the 2010 with the third best odds to win the North – even slotting behind the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers.
Cincy will thus open its season with a chip on its shoulder and do everything in its power to make life tough on New England. Last year, the Bengals had the NFL’s No. 4 defense and most of their key personnel remain intact. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph form one of the league’s best cornerback tandems and Adam “Pacman” Jones joins the fray.
Offensively, the Bengals should at least match last year’s output. Cedric Benson silenced his critics by running hard and angry, averaging more yards per game than any back not named Chris Johnson. He’s injury-prone but healthy to start 2010.
Cincy’s passing game is a question mark because of Carson Palmer’s diminished arm strength but he at least has a deep group of targets. Chad Ochocinco is the stalwart but now he has Terrell Owens plus rookies Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham in tow.
The Bengals’ “D” has a tough task against Tom Brady, so the key for Cincy may be to break New England’s depleted defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
New England Patriots
If you have the rose-colored glasses on, you’re giddy about the New England Patriots’ 2010 prospects. Their passing game certainly looks good entering the season. Tom Brady is now two years removed from ACL surgery and seems poised for at least one more monstrous offensive year. Randy Moss is too; he reportedly never worked harder in an offseason than he did this year.
Wes Welker made a miraculous recovery from a torn ACL over the offseason and looks good to go for Week 1, though he remains a re-injury risk. If he does get hurt down the road, Julian Edelman is a totally capable replacement (though Edelman is a bit nicked up himself right now).
The problem is that the good news may end there for New England. The Pats always find a way to run the ball effectively but Laurence Maroney failed to step up and grab the job over the summer. That means aging Fred Taylor will likely start for New England this week. Gulp.
The Pats’ “D” was above average last year but it’s seriously depleted at the moment. Defensive end Ty Warren and cornerback Leigh Bodden both suffered season-ending injuries this summer. New England’s young guns – like linebacker Jerod Mayo – have to step up their play.
The pick:
All week, I’ve been endorsing the Patriots, claiming that “it’s Tom Brady and he’s at home in Week 1, so the Pats are unstoppable.” But the more I look at this matchup, the less I like New England.
Brady is great but he’s still facing an elite pass defense with two elite corners. And where else does New England have any possible matchup edge? The Bengals have the better rushing attack with Benson. Their passing game may take advantage of the hobbled Patriots secondary, too.
The way I see it, a healthy reigning division champion is a safer bet than the aging, extremely banged up Pats, even though they’re at home this week.
Bengals vs Patriots prediction: Bengals 27, Patriots 24
Moneyline: Bengals +175
Spread: Bengals +4.5
Over/Under: OVER 45
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