CFB & NFL: Football Rewind and Fast Forward
With the week 2 college football action and first full week of NFL play in the books, let’s take a look at some of what we saw, plus take a sneak peek at what’s to come this weekend by pulling out some key betting tidbits to watch out for.
Get more key info on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS & TEAM STATISTICS pages.
On Saturday, it became more obvious that the talent level at Wisconsin has dropped. Former coach and now AD Barry Alvarez locked up most every top recruit in the state of Wisconsin and several very good ones in Iowa and certain pockets of Illinois. Since, the quality of players on the Madison campus is not the same. Fresno State would have beaten the Badgers except for a 3-0 turnover margin. Wisky’s first three Big Ten games are Michigan State, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. They could be looking at 1-2 at best.
Speaking of the Spartans, they are off a loss at home to Central Michigan. That makes them 1-8-1 ATS before playing Notre Dame, however they have won and covered six straight in South Bend, five as underdogs. The Irish handed Michigan a win this past Saturday, and if they are to get back into BCS conversations, they’ll need to take care of business as 11-point favorites. Early bettors don’t like their chances, as 60%+ are backing Michigan State at last check. See the latest numbers on the BETTING TRENDS page.
On the opposite side of the Notre Dame crumble was USC, who rallied with a 14-play, 86-yard drive for the winning score in the final minute at Ohio State. The Trojans begin their Pac 10 slate this weekend with a second straight road game, facing an improved Washington team. One interesting trend for this game finds USC 1-6 ATS on the back end of two-game road trip. Care to lay the 21 points?
Favorites produced a modest 21-24-1 ATS record in Week 2 college action. Though all games are not wagered equally, the Totals were split right down the middle in games played at 23 apiece. Double digit favorites were 12-14-1 ATS, however road favorites of 10 to 24 points were 5-0 against the number. Home underdogs were decent 10-7 ATS.
In the NFL, several stories arose from the week 1 proceedings. Denver and Cincinnati’s offenses looked fairly uncertain until the final minutes. The Broncos got a fortuitous bounce for the 12-7 upset win. Up next for Cincy is a trip to Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers’ last minute TD pass and almost as important for bettors, the ensuing 2-point conversion, gave the Packers a confidence building come-from-behind win over Chicago on Sunday night. In Carolina, is Jake Delhomme done? It sure looks that way as he single-handedly gave away the game vs. the Eagles. In his last two games, he has thrown nine interceptions.
Speaking of the Eagles, we’ll see what happens with Donovan McNabb and his cracked rib, but you can’t help but be impressed with Philadelphia’s skill players and their team speed. They are a 2-point opening line favorite at Sportsbook.com, in one of week 2’s most intriguing games vs. the Saints. McNabb is sure to be listed as questionable for the contest, and Saints’ QB Drew Brees comes off a 6-TD effort vs. Detroit.
One of the dangers of following media hype and overall public perception was magnified in the Monday night doubleheader. Both New England & San Diego, heavy favorites, were backed by over 85% of bettors at Sportsbook.com. Unfortunately for their backers, both teams did just enough to win and not cover. New England is not the same team it was in 2007, and certainly not worthy of being a consistent double-digit favorite. Fade them in such cases in the near future.
Favorites were 8-8 ATS this past week in the pro ranks, with the Total also dead even at 8-8. Favorites of a touchdown or more were 3-2 ATS and home underdogs were a 1-3 against the number.
