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Conference Championship Round NFL Totals Betting Analysis

NFL Conference Championships- Totals Analysis

The totals bet for Sunday’s NFL conference title games came down to whether the stingy defenses would rule the day, or the high powered offenses would run wild. In both games we actually had a little of both. In the end though the points finally started to add up and both games went over their total.

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Here is a brief recap of each of the games.

New York Jets@ Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under 39.5 Result 47 OVER

Most of the first two quarters of this game belonged to New York. Not only were they able to hold the Colt’s to field goals instead of touchdowns on their first two scoring opportunities, they showed some offensive firepower of their own, scoring a TD on an 80 pass play from QB Mark Sanchez to WR Braylon Edwards. Another score was set up with a 45 yard pass play from WR Brad Smith, who faked an end around and threw the ball to Jerricho Cotchery, who took it all the way down to the Indianapolis 12 yard line. Trailing 17-6 late in the first half, Colt’s QB Peyton Manning decided to take matters into his own hands by dissecting the Jet’s secondary with pin point passes to everyone that CB Derrell Revis was not covering. Rookie WR Austin Collie and second year WR Pierre Garcon became Manning’s favorite targets.

Collie ended the day with seven receptions for 123 yards and one TD, while Garcon had 11 receptions for 151 yards and a TD as the Colts scored 24 unanswered points to come away with a 30-17 victory. Manning ended the day completing 26 of 39 attempts for 377 yards and three TD’s. His amazing performance put his team in the Super Bowl for the second time in four years and ended the Jet’s surprising run through the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings@ New Orleans Saints
Over/Under 53 Result 59 OVER

Everyone expected fireworks from these two offenses and the way the game started, they did not disappoint. Combining for four TDs by early in the second quarter, I was getting ready to cash in my over bet by halftime. With the game tied at 14 and over 10 minutes left to play in the second quarter, the defenses started to make their presence known as neither team was able to find the end zone for the rest of the half. The Saint’s got things going again early in the third, scoring a TD on their opening drive. The Vikings answered right back with a nine play drive that knotted the game at 21. The next score did not come until early in the 4th quarter, when Saint’s DT Remi Ayodele recovered a Percy Harvin fumble that set up a five yard TD pass from Drew Brees to Reggie Bush.

Minnesota answered again with a seven play drive that resulted in a two yard TD run by Adrian Peterson to tie the game at 28, finally taking it over the 53 point total line. In overtime, New Orleans won the coin toss and after a methodical 10 play drive, K Garrett Hartley nailed a 40 yard field goal to send the Saints to their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. The Vikings had opportunities to win this game, but five turnovers, a costly 12 men in the huddle penalty that took them out of field goal range late in the 4th quarter, and a very questionable defensive interference penalty in overtime were mistakes that were just too much to overcome.

With one more game to go (not counting this Sunday’s Pro Bowl), we turn our attention to Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Super Bowl XLIV which will be played on Sunday, February 7th.

CLICK HERE TO BET ON SUPERBOWL 44!!!! The early line has the Colts favored by 4 ½ points and a total line of 55.5.


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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.


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