NCAA Poinsettia Bowl Analysis Boise St. vs TCU
Boise St. Broncos vs. TCU Horned Frogs 8:00 PM ET
A sports betting battle between two of the top non-BCS conferences in the country will take place Tuesday night when the undefeated Boise State Broncos (12-0 SU, 7-2-2 ATS) put perfection on the line against the TCU Horned Frogs (10-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Boise State eschewed a bowl game on their home turf against a mediocre Maryland to prove their worth against TCU. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are looking to show NCAA bettors just how good they are this season despite losses to highly ranked Oklahoma and Utah.
Boise State comes into this college football betting affair as one of just two undefeated teams left this year (Utah being the other). The Broncos have gotten it done behind the strong arm of true freshman QB Kellen Moore. The redshirt field general completed 70% of his passes for Bronco bettors for 3264 yards and 25 touchdowns against just nine interceptions.
In Boise’s last game, a 61-10 rout against the NCAA betting odds of Pat Hill’s Fresno State Bulldogs, Moore piloted an offense that exploded for 494 total yards and eight touchdowns in the sports betting victory. Senior RB Ian Johnson, still well known amongst college football bettors and viewers alike for his performance against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago, had a big day in his last game ever on the blue turf, rushing for 128 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries.
While Boise is known for its offensive proficiency, Gary Patterson’s TCU Horned Frogs are most known for its stingy defense that allowed just 10.9 PPG and 215.1 YPG, marks that installed them as the second best defense in the nation in both categories. TCU bettors got a historic performance from the TCU rush defense that allowed a grand total of 584 rushing yards on the season, a paltry 1.7 YPC average that is a full yard less per carry than any other team in the country.
The defense might get most of the notoriety, but the Horned Frog offense is nothing to overlook either. QB Andy Dalton had a solid season, completing 58.8% of his passes for 2045 yards and 11 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Despite having a defense that only allowed the mighty Oklahoma Sooners to score more than 14 points against them all season, NCAA lines have adjusted to the Horned Frogs great defense which has led to three of their last four going over the ‘total’ per the closing college football betting lines.
Some important NCAAF betting trends to note when handicapping this game include: TCU is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games as a favorite, the Broncos are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog, and the ‘under’ is 10-4 in Boise State’s L/14 non-conference games.
BetUS oddsmakers have TCU tagged as a three-point favorite with a bowl game ‘total’ of 45.5 points.
