Categories
Handicapping

MLB Handicapping: American League Pitching

In this article we handicap the American Leagues pitching. Leading the American League money rankings is Los Angeles Angels righthander Matt Palmer, who is 5-0 with an ERA just over 4.00…

Baseball Betting: AL Pitchers Report

Betting pitchers is like riding the city bus – you’ve got to know when to get on, and you’ve got to know when to get off.  Some rides last only a few starts before sportsbooks adjust the betting odds, while other arms can boost your bankroll for the entire season.

Leading the American League money rankings is Los Angeles Angels righthander Matt Palmer, who is 5-0 with an ERA just over 4.00 but will likely be used out of the bullpen for the remainder of the season now that Kelvim Escobar has returned from the DL.

Value still lies in the American League West, but the clock may be ticking on the latest cash-cows. The Texas Rangers’ improved play caught many bettors off guard. Much of that has to do with stellar performances from the rotation, namely Scott Feldman and Vicente Padilla.

Those righthanders have earned over 10 betting units through the first two months of the season. Texas has risen to the top of the AL West by giving those pitchers some solid run support, but in recent games Feldman and Padilla have been knocked around and could be on the downturn.

Also making money on the West Coast is the Oakland Athletics’ reliever-turned-starter Josh Outman. The lefthanded hurler leads the team in ERA (3.17) and WHIP (1.17) and is undefeated in his 10 starts this season (4-0), in which the A’s are 7-3 and earned backers 5.29 units.

Oakland was one of the hottest teams in the American League heading into the week. The Athletics are backing up their rotation with six runs per game during this stretch. Outman is coming off one of his best starts of the season and will take the mound in San Francisco on Saturday.

While lesser-known arms are always a great way to capitalize on favorable betting odds, wagering on a proven ace can have its advantages. Baseball bettors have to shell out a little more on the moneyline, but at least know what they are getting.

Making good on those pricey lines is Chicago White Sox ace Mark Buehrle, who has earned 3.87 units despite having minimal run support. Buehrle is 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA, helping the White Sox to eight wins in his 11 starts this season.

Chicago is currently mired in a slump to start the month, which should keep Buehrle’s betting odds reasonable. He gives bettors great value because of his ability to go deep into games, but has shown a tendency to give up the long ball in recent outings.

Another ace worth the extra chalk is Detroit Tigers righty Justin Verlander. He’s putting a poor 2008 behind him, going 6-2 with a 3.26 ERA. The Tigers are 8-4 when Verlander takes the bump and have pulled in 3.63 units in those games.

Detroit’s offense has slowed down a bit in June, hitting .222 and averaging under four runs a game this month. In Verlander’s last start, the Tigers mustered just one run while closer Fernando Rodney blew the lead in the ninth for a 2-1 defeat.

The Tigers’ AL Central rivals, the Kansas City Royals, are burning through backers’ bankrolls in recent weeks.

Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke are among the best money pitchers in the AL, but their recent starts have cost bettors at the sportsbook. Grienke was the hottest bet in the majors to begin the year but the club has gone just 2-4 in his last six starts and burned over four units. Bannister hasn’t had the expensive moneylines like his teammate but has still cost backers in his past three starts, giving up 15 total runs in those games.

Two other arms failing to live up to expectations are Detroit’s Dontrelle Willis and Tampa Bay’s James Shields. Willis has been a lost cause over the past few seasons, and he is just 1-3 since returning to the rotation while Detroit has posted a 2-4 record in his starts. Willis is still a recognized name and his odds reflect that misconception, making him even more costly.

Shields leads the Rays in ERA (3.40 ERA) and WHIP (1.28 WHIP) but has just a 5-4 record to show for it. Tampa Bay is 5-7 when the righty takes the hill and has watched 5.14 units go down the tubes. The Rays’ success last year, along with Shields’ solid work in the postseason, has bumped the price tag up on the three-year veteran.

BET NOW ON TODAY’S MLB ODDS AT BOOKMAKER.COM SPORTSBOOK – ONE OF OUR VERY BEST SPORTSBOOKS ONLINE!!!

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"