Michael Alexander: Final Four NCAAB Picks — Who Has the Edge?
Tickets to the Final Four have been punched and two of the finalists come from, what some acknowlegde as the Power Conference of NCAAB Picks, the Big East. Between now and the actual games you’ll be able to read all sorts of articles about who is going to make a profitable NCAAB Pick. Handicapping the final games is all about matchups, motivation, injuries, and historical perspectives.
Although to properly pick a winning NCAAB Pick, all of these need to be handicapped, historical trends and angles can give you the needed edge prior to looking at the “softer side” of the contests. I have been very successful employing this type of strategies through the years, so it is with that thought in proceeding with this upcoming Final Four Picks. The following are the historical trends that will give us an edge:
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In the Championship Game, only two underdogs have won SU and/or ATS (2-7) since 2000 (22%). They were Syracuse in 2003 and Kansas in 2007.
Since 1998 when a higher seed plays a lower seed (Michigan State/Villanova), the higher seed is 17-8 both SU and ATS.
Favorites of 6.5 or more in Final Four Picks are only 9-7 SU and a horrible 3-13 ATS.
Favorites of between 4-6 points in the Final Four Picks are 16-5 both SU and ATS.
Since 1997 the #3 seeds have been a money maker going 13-7 ATS (Michigan State/Villanova).
Any #1 seed who is listed as an underdog to a #2 or higher seed has been a money maker as well going 10-3 ATS the last 13 chances.
So there you have it!
While only these factors should not the only basis for a profitable NCAAB Pick it does give us a head start on who will have the edge in the upcoming Final Four Picks.
Michael has owned the hardwood this season and is primed with a huge card of WINNERS!
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