Joe D’Amico MLB Baseball Handicapping Tips
The five most recent World Series have lasted only 22 games combined — three sweeps and two that ended with Game 5.
In this year’s World Series, which opens today, the Yankees have been installed as a favorite of about 2-1 on the series line. Oddsmakers are asking bettors to lay a fairly steep price with New York against a Philadelphia team coming off an impressive showing in the National League Championship Series in which it handled the Dodgers as a small series underdog.
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It’s unlikely, however, according to the odds, that we’ll see another sweep or a five-game breeze … by either team.
In the proposition requiring bettors to pick the result of the World Series in the exact number of games, the most likely outcome is the Yankees to win in seven games. That’s listed at 14-5, or just under 3-1, at all Cal Neva sports books in Nevada.
The Yankees to win in five games is a 7-2 shot, followed by the Yankees in six games at 4-1 and the Yankees to sweep at 5-1.
Philly supporters can get 15-1 — the biggest price the prop offers — on a Phillies sweep. It’s 6-1 the Phillies will win five games, 7-1 they’ll win in six games and 6-1 they’ll beat the Yankees in seven.
Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D’Amico agrees with the sentiment that the Yankees will prevail, but that it won’t be easy for them.
He’s shying away from playing the Yankees on the series line, which opened at minus 190 (risk $1.90 to net $1) at Cal Neva and a tad higher elsewhere. All Lucky’s sports books in Nevada, for example, have the Yankees at minus 202 to win the series with the Phils at plus 177 (risk $1 to net $1.77). As always, odds can and do change by the minute.
D’Amico also sees the line on New York to win Game 1 as a bit inflated. It was as high as minus 170 Tuesday in Las Vegas, with the price on the Phillies ranging from plus 155 to plus 160 at most spots.
Instead, D’Amico will look to grab the Yankees at shorter prices in individual games later in the series, such as when they visit Philadelphia. He’s also looking to play “unders” in totals wagering.
“When you’re dealing with the Yankees, it’s not like dealing even with the Lakers or the Cowboys or any other of the America’s Teams,” said D’Amico, who can be found online at CAPPERSPICKS.COM. “The New York Yankees symbol is right up there with Coca-Cola and Disney. They’re the most known entity in sports.
“So the Yankees are always going to get a blown-up (betting) line. Much like other teams who are very well-known in their sports, they’re always going to be a fan and a betting favorite.
“Don’t sell the Phillies short. The Yankees will win the series, but it’s not going to be as easy as being a two-dollar (minus 200) favorite suggests.”
A cursory glance might lead bettors to expect a high-scoring World Series. The Yankees led the majors in home runs, and the Phillies led the NL in homers. Yankee Stadium and Citizens Bank Park were ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in allowing the most homers. Four of the Phillies’ five games against the Dodgers in the NLCS went over the total posted in sports books.
Yet for Game 1 of the World Series, many sports books in Las Vegas have hung an over/under of 7 1/2 runs — one of the smallest figures you’ll see on any baseball game. Other books have it at 8 runs, but with a premium as high as minus 130 on the under.
Think the oddsmakers might be trying to tell us something?
“I don’t believe this is a series that’s going to be decided by the long ball,” D’Amico said. “This is the kind of series that will be decided by stolen bases, by hit-and-runs, by sacrifice flies and bunts. The team that makes the least defensive mistakes will be a big part of it.
“Not every game will go under. One of them will probably be something like a 13-8 game. But you’re dealing with pitchers who are smart, who can work the count, who are the best in baseball. Watch the unders.”
By: Jeff Haney
One reply on “Handicapping The 2009 World Series”
I think there will be quite a few long balls in this series as both teams having been feasting off them all year long.
I can see why the Yankess are favored, but I’m not sure they are right as the fearlessness of the Phillies lineup is something that cannot be figured into the stats that set the odds.