NCAAF Wagering – Where’s the Value among BCS Contenders?
BetUS sports bettors who are interested in college football are probably wondering what’s going on with the BCS national championship picture. Well, let’s take a close look at the possibilities of the contenders.
First, here are the top ten teams as rated by the BCS criteria:
1 – ALABAMA
2 – TEXAS TECH
3 – TEXAS
4 – FLORIDA
5 – OKLAHOMA
6 – USC
7 – UTAH
8 – PENN STATE
9 – BOISE STATE
10 – OHIO STATE
Now for the odds:
BetUS Sportsbook Odds – To Win 2009 BCS National Championship
Penn State 50/1
Florida 7/4
Alabama 5/2
Texas 4/1
Texas Tech 5/1
Oklahoma 9/2
USC 7/1
Let’s take these teams as they are listed in order:
PENN STATE (50/1 at BetUS) has a very tough road to hoe. At least five teams in front of the Nittany Lions are going to have to lose. This does not seem likely, since at least two of these teams are going to reinforce their ranking (above Penn State) with a big win. In the conference Penn State plays, they aren’t going to get a lot of points for quality wins. Honestly, Utah might have a better chance to get there if they are undefeated.
FLORIDA (7/4, or +175 at BetUS), after their warm-up against The Citadel, will have to beat Florida State, which can be pesky, then they will have to emerge victorious against Alabama in the SEC championship just to get to the title game. At that point, they may be a favorite, depending on who they play of course.
ALABAMA (5/2 at BetUS) will have to beat Auburn in that traditional rivalry, then turn around and win an SEC title game against Florida. So it basically comes down to whether you like them or Florida in the SEC. Please note, however, that while Alabama will assure itself a berth in the title game if it wins out, it is not a slam dunk for Florida (though quite likely), because the Gators have a couple of teams in front of them. And don’t disqualify a leapfrog somewhere if they are not impressive against Florida State. Once again, though, not likely.
TEXAS (4/1 at BetUS) will have to hope that Oklahoma beats Texas Tech on Saturday, thereby forcing a three-way tie in the Big 12’s South division. If they are the highest-rated team among those three in the Big 12 at that point, they should get the Big 12 title game spot. However, they would also have to hope that by virtue of beating Texas Tech, Oklahoma didn’t leap over them (even though they beat the Sooners, at which point there will controversy for sure).
TEXAS TECH (5/1 at BetUS) has a simple road, as it controls its own destiny. If the Red Raiders bat Oklahoma, then Baylor next week, and defeat Missouri in the Big 12 title game, they will have a decent chance to be rated #1. Even of they are not, they will punch a ticket to the BCS Championship. But can they do all that?
OKLAHOMA (9/2 at BetUS) needs skill and a tiny bit of luck. If the Sooners beat Texas Tech, they will have to sit back and wait for the BCS standings to come out. And it will be a matter of whether the strength of beating the #2-rated team will help them surge ahead of Texas, a team it has lost to, into the top three. If that happens, the Sooners will probably get to face Missouri in the Big 12 championship.
Of these teams, I don’t know that I don’t like Alabama’s price the most, because the Crimson Tide is in the driver’s seat as the #1 team. All the others, save for Texas Tech, face a bit of uncertainty even if they win out. ‘Bama doesn’t. But for longshot value, try….
USC (7/1 at BetUS) may be wishing and hoping a bit, but they don’t have to play another high-risk game in order to go the rest of their schedule unbeaten, unless you consider Notre Dame or UCLA to have the capability of beating them. That is not a likely scenario. Remember that among the top five teams ahead of USC, two of them will lose. Texas Tech could beat Oklahoma, then lose to Missouri. Oklahoma may win, then lose to Missouri, or not even go to the Big 12 title game. Texas could lose to Missouri. Alabama or Florida could lose their rivalry game, then lose the SEC title game. Stranger things have happened. So don’t count the Trojans out.
