NFL Week Five Free Picks – Previewing the Early Games in the AFC, plus Shaking Down the NFC Early Games
The Indianapolis Colts return from the bye week ready to rectify a surprisingly morbid season. They’ve gone 1-2 SU and ATS thus far, averaging a measly 17.3 points per game. Peyton Manning has looked curiously nervous despite having Marvin Harrison return to action. The 249.0 yards they’re averaging don’t seem to be translating in to points. Maybe that has to do with Joseph Addai and the rushing game putting up 64.0 per game.
Meanwhile their defense has been nothing short of pathetic. Without Bob Sanders, this defense loses its entire identity. Have they managed to figure things out during the bye? Those of you that are idiotic enough to bet on the 1-2 ATS Texans because of Matt Schaub’s performance last week need to ease off the crazy pills. It was one game. If the Colts have proven anything in the past, it’s that they have the personnel and the coaching to overcome rough patches. With a bye week to adjust, I’m willing to wager on the Colts over the Texans in the OVER.
The surprising leaders of the AFC South are the Titans who are 4-0 ATS and SU. Averaging 25.5 points per game helps. Averaging 11.5 points per game against is what defines it. This team seems to be rising behind the efforts of Chris Johnson, who looks like a veteran stud on the field. They’ll need it to overcome against the Baltimore Ravens, who have gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against the Titans. The NFL betting trends lean towards Baltimore, however the smart NFL betting investor will stick with the Titans who look like they’re on a different planet. Baltimore was able to run against Pittsburgh last weekend. They won’t have that luxury against the Titans, who are emerging as the new favorite to win the AFC South.
To cap the early games for the AFC road favorites is San Diego visiting Miami. The Charger are getting a 6.5-point handicap against the lowly Miami Dolphins, who carried a stunning victory over the Patriots in to the bye week. The Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games, but are looking more and more suspect each week. They let Oakland get up on them in the first half, but came back behind some stunning plays to win 28-18 against the Raiders. With Ronnie Brown returning to form against an underrate front line, I’d bet on the Dolphins to break the spread for those who side with the Chargers on namesake alone. The Chargers look inconsistent. The Chargers are 0-6 SU against Miami, and that first win won’t be coming this weekend.
The parity in the NFC is much tighter for football bettors, and the week has brought in some interesting news. Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder still seems to be bothering him, meaning that the Packers’ betting faithful must decide if they like Matt Flynn from LSU to beat Matt Ryan. That game remains off the board until we hear more news about Rodgers. In the meantime, there are plenty of games on the early board to get your betting appetite wet on the Week 5 NFL Odds & Lines.
Even after destroying the Denver Broncos behind the powerful running of Larry Johnson, who amassed an astounding 198 rushing yards along with two scores. The Panthers have given up 114.3 rushing yards against thus far, and while it’s difficult to discern LJ’s ability to run on the road, it’s certainly more difficult to figure out if the Panthers can defend a spread we have sitting at -9.5.
The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 roadies, while Carolina has been 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The point differential over the course of the season for the Panthers is only -2.5, so a big spread like that seems auspicious at best. I have no idea why I’m using such big words today. There’s no need. I’ll make it simple: Bet on Kansas to cover in the OVER.
The Giants are also getting a 9-point handicap while they face the Seattle Seahawks. The Giants are giving up 170.3 yards through the air, allowing 14.3 points against in the process. They’ve gone 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games, with that lone loss going to Cincinnati, who also received a big spread. As I said earlier this week, the Giants aren’t good enough to cover that many points against an aerial team like Seattle. I’d advice taking the Seahawks, who haven’t had this many points this year and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Giants.
The Detroit Lions are wasting zero time in proving that they suck big, fat donkey balls this season. They’re 0-3 SU and ATS, losing games by -18.0 points per matchup. The Bears are not nearly as efficient as the 2005 version, but they’re 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Now that trade rumors are swirling around Roy Williams at receiver, the chances of Detroit emerging as a force to be reckoned with are a joke. Bet on the Bears to rip Detroit apart and attempt to keep pace with the Packers.
The best game on the board for the early birds is Philadelphia dropping the gloves against Washington. Those that bet on NFL have been tracking both of these spread busters, who have gone 3-1 ATS thus far. The Eagles were cheated out of a win last weekend, while Washington left no doubt that they can pace the Cowboys. But Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games against Washington. The Eagles are pegged at -6, and I fully expect the Eagles to cover against an overrated Washington team that won’t be able to throw on Philadelphia’s ferocious defense.
