West Virginia Mountaineers vs Marshall Thundering Herd
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Friday September 10 – 7:00PM
Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington West Virginia
West Virginia (1-0) vs Marshall (0-1)
Moneyline: WVU -475, Marshall +375
Spread Favourite: WVU -12.5
Over/Under: 47
West Virginia
As expected the Mountaineers cruised in their opener against Coastal Carolina. Although the competition wasn’t the highest calibre first time starting QB Geno Smith looked pretty sharp, completing 21 of 27 for a couple of TDs before exiting. He did throw the one pick but lets not grade him to harshly given his experience. WVU had the perfect tune up game as they were able to run their stuff, win with ease and keep everyone healthy in the process.
On a day of fine performances by running backs across the nation Noel Devine’s name was nowhere to be found among the rushing leaders. Sure his numbers look good, 23-111 with a TD, but against an overmatched defense the line should have been able to spring him for more yardage. Devine is their most dynamic playmaker and the key to their offense. He is as explosive as any back in the country and it would be great it they could get him going before heading into the meat of the conference schedule. I think they will feed him the rock more in this one unless it gets out of hand early.
It may have only been Coastal Carolina but don’t overlook the WVU defense. In recent history they have been very stout against the run and twice in the last three season’s they have held opponents under 20ppg. They have played Marshall the last 4 years and only once have they given up more than 10 points to the Thundering Herd. 
The Herd may play solid defense as well but they are going to need more offensive punch than that if they want to pull off the upset in front of their home fans.
Marshall
The Thundering Herd were simply outclassed in their opening loss to Ohio State. No suprise there although it looked like they might have mounted more of an offensive attack after scoring against the Buckeyes in the first quarter. WVU is not as talented as OSU but there is still a huge talent gap between Marshall and their in-state rivals. There appears to be no expected way that that gap will be bridged in this one.
The lone bright spot from last week was the play of speedy RB Andre Booker. He ripped the Buckeyes for a 63 yard kickoff and has game breaking speedy. He is the rare Marshall player from Florida – I don’t know how they got him to commit to Marshall but now that he is there they need to get him more touches on offense to see what he can do. Last week he had only 6 touches and the OSU really bottled him up (5 carries for 8 yards). WVU’s defense won’t be as stout and they need him to use his 4.3 speed to create some big momentum changing plays. They need to rip off some chunks on offense as their precision isn’t great.
This is the smallest spread in the recent series between these two teams. Prior to this the lowest had been WVU -16.5 and in one contest it was even as high as -25.5. Over the last four games, all WVU victories, each team is 2-2 against the spread. With the spread so low but the disparity still great between these clubs it is hard to think that WVU is not the play here.
They can definitely outscore their opponent and their defense is better too.
The Pick: The only real trend is that WVU wins here but that is a no brainer. With the low spread I think covering is a given as well. The over looks good too.
College Football Gambling Trends:
Mountaineers are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Thundering Herd are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Thundering Herd are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
Thundering Herd are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Score Prediction: West Virginia 42 – Marshall 17
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