NFL Week 10 – Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Preview
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Colts at Pats Matchup
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 21 – 4:15 p.m.
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
Colts vs. Patriots lines
MoneyLine: Colts +150/Patriots -170
Spread: Patriots -3
Over/Under: 50.5
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Preview
The Colts and the Patriots have played each other so much (after Sunday it will be eight straight seasons, and over the past 7 years they have played 10 times, including the postseason) that each franchise’s history would be compelling even if it included only the games against each other. Huge comebacks by the Colts, game-winning goal-line stands by the Patriots, rumors that Indianapolis pipes in crowd noise to make it tougher on the Pats offense, the two most unlikeable personalities in the NFL (Bill Belichick and Bill Polian) . . . it goes on and on.
What everyone seems to agree on is that the two best quarterbacks on the planet will be on display late Sunday afternoon in the town of Foxboro, Mass., some 30 miles southwest of Boston. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are the 1 and 1A of QBs, and if you survey the 1,000 smartest football people in the NFL on who is the best, chances are pretty good that each QB would have about 500 votes. Of the last nine Super Bowls, either Brady or Manning has played in six. They are just that good. Philip Rivers may win the MVP award this season, but few people outside of southern California would not prefer Manning or Brady if there was one game to win.
Both Manning and Brady have been fighting adversity this season.
Because of injuries, Manning has had to adjust to a new group of wide receivers, with old reliable Reggie Wayne being the only starter to play in all 9 games. Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have all missed time due to injuries. No matter. Since getting overrun by Houston’s Arian Foster on opening day, the Colts have lost only twice – both on the road, by 2 at Philadelphia and by 3 at Jacksonville. And Manning has been given them even more than what he usually does – he’s on pace to pass for 4,734 yards, which would be 234 more than last year’s total.
Brady, meanwhile, appears 100 percent recovered from the ACL tear that cost him the entire 2008 season, and the Patriots’ victory over the Steelers Sunday night showed that the loss to the Browns the previous week was probably just a temporary loss of focus. The 7-2 Pats used up what they could get out of Randy Moss before dumping him, and have recycled their short- and intermediate-range passing game from the early 2000s and built it around Wes Welker and rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
Trends:
New England is 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall
4-1-1 ATS in their last six
13-1 SU in their last 14 games at home
Against the Colts, the Patriots are 2-4 ATS in their last six games
10-4-1 ATS in their last 15
Just 1-5 SU in their last six
The picks: Look for huge numbers for Manning as the Patriots employ their keep-everything-in-front defense that cedes yardage but stiffens inside their own 40.
New England’s defense ranks 29th in the NFL, a bizarre rating considering that the Pats have won 7 of 9 games. NE dominated the Steelers but still gave up 425 total yards, a number that swelled to an astounding 623 when return yards are factored in.
With Brady calling signals, the Patriots have won 24 straight regular-season home games. Don’t bet on a streak to end. Pats -3, with a possible parlay play on the under (50.5).
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel writer from Massachusetts.
