FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 10, 2010 – UTEP Miners vs Houston Cougars
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Friday September 10 – 10:15PM
Robertson Stadium, Houston, Texas
UTEP (1-0) vs Houston (1-0)
Moneyline: Houston -1200, UTEP +700
Spread Favourite: Houston -20
Over/Under: 73.5
UTEP
When the Miners play you know you can expect some offense which is why it was surprising that their game against Arkansas-Pine-Bluff was just a 31-10 victory. UTEP was missing dynamic RB Donald Buckram in the contest. He was one of the most productive backs in the nation last year but that shouldn’t have slowed them down against that level of competition. This team has to score to win games and if they don’t get their offense back to its peak of a couple of years ago they are in trouble, especially this week.
Normally having a senior QB who has started from day one would be a good thing. Trevor Vittatoe is already second on the all time passing list at UTEP and barring injury he will finish as the leading passer but he has been regressing every year. It is rather inexplicable. This year he loses his top receiver from a year ago but in front of him is a line made completely of seniors, a rarity and a luxury for any program. Vittatoe is a near lock to throw for more than 3000 yards, but in this offense that isn’t all that much and he needs to cut down on his interceptions. 
In last year’s upset victory Buckram had a monster game, rushing for 262 yards and 4 TDs. He missed the opener and is questionable for the contest. Even if he plays it seems unlikely that he could pull off another stellar game given his injury. Without his dynamic playmaking ability it will fall to Vittatoe to be the difference maker. Going pass for pass with Case Keenum and Houston is not a good plan for upset victory.
Houston
You have to imagine that Houston is still smarting after last year’s devastating loss to UTEP. The Cougars were coming off of back to back victories against the Big 12 (including an upset of #5 ranked Oklahoma State) and were ranked #12 in the nation when they lost 58-41 to the Miners. After that the bloom was off the rose and even though they didn’t lose again for a while all the BCS Buster talk was directed at TCU and Boise State. This game is two weeks earlier on the schedule compared to last year but you can bet they have had it circled on their calendar for a while.
Is it possible to score 68 points and have it be considered a pedestrian performance. That is what Houston did against Texas State. Despite the lofty scoring total they didn’t crack 400 passing yards, something that only happened three times during the regular season last year. Keenum, a Heisman trophy candidate has a lot of catching up to do if he is going to break 6,000 yards this season. His numbers were good but against an FCS school he was picked off twice. Not exactly posing material.
For the last five years the winner in this matchup has scored at least 34 points. That shouldn’t be too hard to muster in this contest as both teams are light on the defensive side yet again. The Cougars had won three in a row heading into last year but are 0-3 ATS against UTEP including last year’s shocking defeat. With Buckram out it is going to be hard for the Miners to outscore the Cougars this time.
The Pick: The Cougars are at home, with revenge, facing a team missing its best player. A win is definitely in their future. A slim cover too, although this game is probably a pass.
College Football Gambling Trends:
Miners are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Miners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Miners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Cougars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Score Prediction: Houston 49 – UTEP 28
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