NFL Sunday Night Preview – Talk About A Sunday Suckfest
Ok, it’s not so much that these two teams are awful; it’s just that they’re underachieving at an alarming rate. The Patriots squeezed by the hapless Niners last weekend, while the Chargers lost to – gasp! – the Dolphins. But hey, it’s not like the Patriots didn’t get their asses handed to them by the riley Fins either, right?
Philip Rivers has been a strong quarterback, utilizing his deep wide receiver set to punish opposing secondaries. The Chargers have raised their passing yards average by 30+ yards this season, cruising at 226.6 aerial yards per game. If anything, it’s due to the talent that they have at receiver. If we know anything about the Patriots’ secondary, it’s that it’s smart…and very slow. Rivers should be able to capitalize.
While scoring hasn’t been a problem for the Chargers, who put up 29.6 points per game, it’s been an issue with the New England Patriots. Matt Cassell has shown everyone exactly why he hadn’t started since high school. Laurence Maroney, meanwhile, has been atrocious this season, proving exactly why he needed Marion Barber while the two were at Minnesota together.
NFL Betting Trends
-New England 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
-New England is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games on the road
-New England is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against San Diego
-San Diego is 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games
-San Diego is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home
-total has gone OVER in 6 of last 9 between San Diego and New England
For years the Patriots have had the Chargers’ number, decimating them in the last three meetings. I just want you to remember two things about this particular game. First, Tom Brady is not at the helm for the Patriots. Without him, they went from the best offense in 2007, to 24th in scoring and 19th in passing.
The other thing you have to keep in mind is that the last time San Diego played at home this season, they embarrassed the New York Jets 48-29. With or without the hobbled Chris Chambers, this team can put up points in bunches, and New England doesn’t have the defense to stop them.
New England Patriots (3-1) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Sunday, October 12th — Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego — 8:15pm EST
NFL Betting Line: San Diego -4.5 (44)
Don’t be fooled or lulled by the Patriots just yet. They have a soft schedule, having faced four brutal teams this season. The betting trend I’m concentrating on most is that New England got demolished by Miami and barely beat the Jets. San Diego barely lost to Miami and throttled the Jets…and now they’re at home. Don’t get caught up in the history of this rivalry. This one is easier than you’re making it out to be.
NFL Betting Free Picks: San Diego -4.5 (UNDER)
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