NFL Strength of Schedule – By SPORTSBETTING.COM
NFL Season Win Totals and SOS Variables
When the NFL regular season schedule is released in the spring it sets off a chain reaction in the sports betting world, as online sportsbooks went to work on their Future Odds menu as numbers were calculated on everything from odds to win the division to Week 1 totals and every prop bet in-between.
The NFL odds change throughout the summer based on betting activity and one of the most popular futures bets, ‘Team Win Totals’, often have a much different look by the first kickoff in Week 1.
Strength of schedule (SOS) is one thing that doesn’t change during the summer and it’s interesting to look at some of the variances between how the bookmakers are currently ranking the teams and how the SOS rates them.
SOS is a simple formula that takes every team’s record from the previous season and puts that into the upcoming season’s schedule. Record are added up, wins and losses, and the team this year that faces the list of opponents with the best combined record from last year gets rated No. 1 for SOS.
For bettors looking for value plays on Team Win Totals, comparing SOS to Season Win Totals is an excellent place to start.
The most common projected range is from 7.5-8.5 wins. The reason, of course, is that NFL teams play 16 games during the regular season. After making the playoffs, the next biggest goal is finishing the season above .500 (eight wins). For a lot of teams, hitting .500 is a much more realistic goal than actually making the post-season and this year there are 16 teams listed in that slim one-game range of wins.
The 7.5’s: Of the five teams listed by online sportsbooks to finish the season just under the .500 cusp, the one whose SOS stands out the most is Miami (1st). The Dolphins shocked everyone in 2008, introducing the Wildcat offense and improving their win total from 2007 by 10 wins. There are very few that feel Miami will reach such lofty goals in back-to-back seasons; drawing the toughest schedule in the league doesn’t help their cause.
The 8.5’s: By far the biggest grouping of all, there are 11 teams with an 8.5 win total this year. Four were aided by a soft schedule, especially Chicago. The Bears get the pleasure facing the Detroit Lions twice this season and it translated into a SOS ranking of 32nd.
Speaking of the Lions, Detroit is 21st in SOS yet still managed to hold onto the lowest projected win total in the league (4.5). Going winless for a full season is something that bookies – and football bettors – don’t seem to forget about too easily.
Finally, there were four teams with posted win totals in the double-digits this year and the two that stand out the most are Pittsburgh and New England. The Pats have the third toughest SOS but the return of Tom Brady puts them back in Super Bowl contention. The Steelers, last year’s champs, show that even the NFL’s balanced scheduling format has holes in it. Thanks to a couple of weak division foes Pittsburgh has the 29th toughest schedule. Can anybody say repeat?
Check out your online sportsbook for all the latest lines on NFL Season Win Totals.
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One reply on “Handicapping The 2009 NFL SOS”
I do not put a lot of emphasis on strength of schedule in the NFL. Last year, teams that had Miami and Atlanta on their schedule probably penciled them in as W’s before the season even started. With parity in the NFL there are about 10-15 teams that could go either way as far as wins or losses.