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Rebels vs Green Wave NCAA Football Pick / Gambling Preview (Sept. 11)

Mississippi Rebels vs Tulane Green Wave

Before College Football Gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this week, we have the Friday NCAA game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly Football picks for online ncaa football betting action.

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Saturday September 11 – 9:00PM
Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Mississippi (0-1) vs Tulane (1-0)
Moneyline. Ole Miss -800, Tulane +1400
Spread Favourite: Ole Miss -21
Over/Under: 50

Ole Miss

The Rebels should be thanking Michigan for taking some of the sting from their loss to FCS Jacksonville State last week.  When Big Blue lost to Appalachian State a few years back it suddenly made it possible that such a thing could happen without the world actually coming to an end.  Otherwise Oxford would be even more uncomfortable in the late summer heat than it already is.  Last year was a disappointment for Ole Miss and with many losses from that team expectations were pretty low this season…but not that low.  It is amazing they can still be favoured by three TDs against anybody this weekend.

The addition of Jeremiah Masoli was supposed to be a boon for coach Houston Nutt.  There is no doubting he can play at a high level as he was one of the better spread QBs in the nation last fall.  While he threw only one pick in the game the team seemed to lose all momentum after he entered and he may have been in a poor state mentally given his status over the last couple of weeks.  Heading into week 2 the Rebels still need to decide which horse they want to hitch their wagon to, Masoli or Nathan Stanley, who was very sharp in building Ole Miss a big lead.

You wouldn’t know it from last week but this has been a very good defensive team under Houston Nutt – back to back season holding opponents under 20ppg.  They had some key graduation losses but in Jerrell Powe they have one of the better interior linemen in the country.  He is so big that he can single handedly clog up the running game and could be too much for Tulane to handle.  Like so many other big guys the key is motor.  He can be the best player on the field when he wants to be which could be trouble for the Green Wave.

Tulane

It has been a long time since Tulane did anything of note on the gridiron.  They haven’t had a .500 season since 2002 and are a consistent doormat in C-USA.  This is not expected to change this year as they lose their biggest offensive weapon from last year (Andre Anderson) and return only a total of 11 starters.  Coach Bob Toledo is a heck of a guy who had some success at UCLA way back when but I think it is going to be very hard to get this program to where it can compete with any degree of regularity.  I think the graduation of the Sun Belt to the FBS only made it tougher for Tulane as they compete for  local talent with so many schools now.

The best thing to come from their opening victory over Southwest Louisiana is they may have found Anderson’s replacement.  In the 7 point win (they were favoured by 9) true frosh Orleans Darkwa (great name) rushed for 3 TDs.  He is bigger than the more experienced Albert Williams and can move the pile.  Tulane will take offense wherever they can get it.  This team has averaged about 16ppg the last two season and split time at QB last year between Joe Kemp and Ryan Griffin.  Griffin is the starter this year.  He is a big guy and can take the punishment behind a line that gives up its fair share of sacks.

These teams have met 70 times but not since 2000.  It may not have much bearing but Ole Miss has won the last 9 and should emerge victorious again on Saturday night.  Which brings us to the the real question…by how much?  Will the Rebels be so angry about last week that they slaughter the defenseless Green Wave or is this a snake bit team that is going to disappoint throughout the season.  I think it is going to be a bit of both.

The Pick:  Ole Miss should win with ease this week (but we all said that last week too).  I am not sure what they are going to do at QB but it shouldn’t matter.  They just need to figure it out before the SEC kicks off or else they are in trouble.  Look for a solid cover with great backdoor possibilities for Tulane.

College Football Gambling Trends

Rebels are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Rebels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Green Wave last 4 vs. SEC.
Under is 6-1 in Green Wave last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Green Wave last 5 games in September.
Under is 7-2 in Green Wave last 9 non-conference games.

Score Prediction:  Ole Miss 42 – Tulane 17

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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