Fearless Football Free Picks – Week 9
Did you get your ass handed to you in Week 8 of NFL betting? You’re not alone. The good thing is that we’re only half way through the betting season, so it’s time to get back on track in our sportsbook! There are tons of nice plays this weekend so let’s not waster our time.
Let’s talk football with the Week 9 Odds and Lines!
Buffalo to Get Back On Track against Jets
I knew there was something weird about that Buffalo-Miami game last weekend. It turns out that the Dolphins are a little better than we all gave them credit for. Not that I am ready to throw Buffalo under the buss. With the league’s sixth best home defense, allowing just 254.0 yards against, the Bills will restore the faith to their betting faithful by vanquishing the Jets, their rivals from the AFC East. The Jets passing game is just 19th in the league when it hits the road, so don’t expect miracles from Brett Favre in this one. The Bills won’t win them all, but at home they are 12-4 ATS. Bet Bills. Be Happy.
NFL Free Pick: Buffalo -5.5
Spread Busting Bears Host Detroit Suckfest
Is this even worth writing about? The lowly Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and are struggling to find an identity. They are getting blown up by -14.0 points per game this season. Is that they type of team you want defending your money in the sportsbook? As iffy as you might think the Bears can be, they’re still 7-2-1 ATS in their last ten games and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. I think I’m falling in love with Matt Forte at running back as much as the Chicago betting faithful. The last time these two teams met, Chicago blasted Detroit 34-7 when they visited Michigan. This one’s in the bag.
NFL Free Pick: Chicago -12.5
Cincinnati Bagels Still Looking For Their First Win
The Bagels (read: not a typo) are 2-5 ATS this season and the Jaguars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road trips. With Carson Palmer ailing, and Cedric Benson in town to make things worse for Cincinnati, it’s a wonder we haven’t heard more out of Chad Johnson. Or is it Ocho Cinqo? Or is it, “I’m so depressed that I play for the Bengals that I don’t even want to make jokes anymore”? I forget. Either way, the Jags will steamroll the porous rush defense for Cincinnati by unleashing MoJo and Fred Taylor against a rushing defense that allows 146.9 yards against per game.
NFL Free Pick: Jax -8
Houston Takes Three-Game Win Streak Into Minnesota
For all the glitz and glamour associated with the Vikings, they sure aren’t producing like they’re supposed to. Minnesota has punished their betting backers by going 2-5 ATS this season. Houston has been horrific on the road, which is the only reason that I am not advising you to lump your eggs in to one basket. The mentality that “the better team is going to win” is bull crap if you think Houston has suddenly turned the corner. With Steve Slaton smashing in to the best home rushing defense in the league, this game will be up to Matt Schaub. At the same time, I just don’t think Minnesota will continue to get pummeled. They could be the dark horse to watch heading in to the second half.
NFL Free Pick: Minnesota -4.5
Tampa Bay Continues Road Trip to Kansas City
The Bucs had a chance to elevate themselves to a whole new playing field by toppling the Cowboys last weekend. Two bad they decided to have the clumsiest performances of their spectacular season. If you think that the Chiefs are going to upset them with their practice roster going up against a formidable NFC contender, then you’re the obviously the byproduct of shame eating too much stupidity. Bet on the Bucs to smother the Chiefs in a revenge game as they vent all over Herm Edwards audaciously bad team.
NFL Free Pick: Tampa -8.5
Cardinals to Put the Brakes on Rams’ Resurgence
Arizona has been covering the spread in the last month of NFL betting, and the return of Anquan Boldin has to have their betting faithful grinning like idiots. I don’t blame them. The Cardinals have the best overall scoring offense in the league with 28.6 points per game, and are the best road passing team out there. Kurt Warner tosses 293.5 passing yards per game and now has three – count ‘em…THREE – viable receiving threats. As long as this team does the smart thing and had the rushing game over to Officer Hightower, then this offense is going to be one of the most dangerous in the league. And that defense isn’t too shabby either.
I wish I could write something positive about the St. Louis Rams but I just can’t. They’re like a bunch of idiots at an all-you-can-eat stupidity buffet. They know they have to stop eating, but they just can’t. It’s an awful thing to watch.
NFL Free Pick: Arizona -3
Titans To Smash Green Bay
Tennessee made a statement by throttling Peyton Manning and the Colts on Monday Night Football in front of America. Now they are 7-0 SU and ATS, and are perhaps the most dangerous team overall in the league. LenDale White and Chris Johnson are forming the type of Willie Parker/Jerome Bettis rushing tandem that powered the Steelers a few years back. The defense is choking teams to death with only 12.4 points against. When they host the Green Bay Packers, who are 4-3 ATS and coming off a bye week, it will be another stiff challenge. If we learned anything from Monday Night, it’s that Tennessee responds well to challenges.
NFL Free Pick: Tennessee -4.5
Cleveland Has Four Straight Spread Wins?
You bet your degenerate ass they have! It doesn’t matter that they’re 3-2 SU in the last five games, they’re 4-1 ATS over that stretch. They outlasted the Jaguars to win 23-17 last weekend, and it took an absurdly bad day by Derek Anderson for them to lose to Washington. Don’t fall asleep on these dogs just yet. They may surprise you when they defeat the Baltimore Ravens this weekend.
Baltimore has had the good fortune to face a Miami team that didn’t match up well, and an Oakland team that is being managed in to the grave by a man who shouldn’t technically be alive. When they visit the Browns this weekend, we’ll get a much better idea of which team can reasonably challenge the Steelers in the AFC North.
NFL Free Pick: Cleveland -1.5
Dolphins Visit Denver Coming Off Bye Week
I’ll admit, I was all about the Broncos in the first month of the NFL betting season, but after the last few weeks I haven’t been impressed. The Broncos are a horrific 1-5-1 ATS this season and are coming off a spanking by the Patriots two weeks ago. Miami has been retooling and fooling the betting community by going 4-1 ATS in their past five games. Either Mike Shanahan has done the same for the Broncos, or they are still the worst bet in football (read: I say that because they’re supposed to be good, and they can’t cover a spread to save my friend Adam from driving a foot through his TV on Sunday afternoon, which is a double whammy since he’s out of a TV and won’t have the money to buy one since the Broncos lost his bet).
NFL Free Pick: EVERYONE COVERS AGAINST DENVER
Cowboys Slamming In To Football Giants At Wrong Time
Brad Johnson may have got his revenge over the Bucs last weekend, but when the Cowboys hit the road to New York, he may not be the starter. The quarterback carousel is starting to wind up in Dallas in the absence of Tony Romo. America’s Team has fallen to 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 roadies. This is a bad time to run in to the 11-2 ATS New York Giants. A win here will give the Giants a stranglehold over the NFC East division.
NFL Free Pick: NYG -8.5
Eagles To Prevail Over Seattle
It’s not that the 49ers are bad, it’s that they’re terrible. To let Seattle’s practice roster to run rampant on you is beyond embarrassing. Having your interim coach berate you publically after his first game at the helm is even worse. At least Mike Nolan never threw his players under the bus. And goddamn he looked good in a suit!
The Eagles are coming off a huge win over Atlanta where Brian Westbrook returned to form with two scores. Both teams are 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games, but I like the balance of Philadelphia overall and Seattle will struggle considering the speed the Eagles possess on defense. Philly is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 tests on the road, so rest easy Philly fans. You won’t need the rain to bail you out of this one.
NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia -6.5
The Cable Guy And Oakland Are A Bad Fit
I never really broached this topic, but what the hell. Isn’t Oakland’s offensive line the worst unit on the team? So why is the offensive line coach now the HEAD COACH OF THE ENTIRE TEAM?! Does nobody else think this is the dumbest of dumb decisions? Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games, though they’ve fallen to 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on the road. Nothing is working in Oakland, so the Falcons’ betting faithful can rest easy.
NFL Free Pick: Common Sense OVER Al Davis
New England Patriots Meet Indy Under The Lights
Who would’ve thought that two teams could have fallen so far, so fast. The thing about the Patriots, at least, is that they’re 5-2 SU this season. Neither team has been a strong bet, and Indianapolis is coming off their worst loss this season. Can Matt Cassell and company (I don’t even know who plays for the Patriots anymore) make them pay? Though Indy is favored, Lucas Oil Field has brought them ridiculously awful karma. Maybe if it was Save The Rainforest Field, the cosmos wouldn’t be so pissed at the Colts. I don’t know. I’m probably going to change my mind mid-week, but for now, I just can’t imagine the Colts bouncing back against a team they’ve beaten only three times in the last 10 tries.
NFL Free Pick: Patriots +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers To Vanquish Washington One And For All
Washington, in my mind, has been getting lucky. They lost to St. Louis, and then came back to barely scrape a win together against Cleveland before “beating” Detroit by only 8-points. I don’t believe in these guys at all. Hosting the AFC’s best team won’t help at all, and in a pick ‘em this game is an easy choice. The only thing that makes this game a tough call is Pittsburgh’s questionable running game. They are coming off an embarrassing loss against New York and will take out their frustrations on the Skins. You can bet on it.
NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5
