Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan St. Spartans Gambling Preview + Predictions
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Capital One Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan State Preview/Pick
Date/Time: Saturday, January 1 – 1:00 PM
Venue: Citrus Bowl Stadium
Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) vs. Michigan State Spartans (11-1) Betting Lines from Diamond
MoneyLine: Alabama (-380) Michigan State (+310)
NCAA Betting Favorite: Alabama -10 (-110) Michigan State +10 (-110)
Over/Under: 51.5
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Alabama
The Crimson Tide were certainly a good team this year, but considering how high expectations were before the season, this year was a disappointment. In their final regular season game against Auburn they blew a 24-0 lead and lost 28-27. Nick Saban will take on his old team in this matchup as well.
Greg McElroy was knocked out of the Iron Bowl game against Auburn with a concussion, but he is expected to start in this game. McElroy completed 70.6% of his passes this year and threw 19 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson are an awesome tailback tandem. Richardson averaged 6.5 yards per carry this year and Ingram averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Both of the running backs are solid receivers out of the backfield, which gives Alabama an extra weapon in the passing game. Julio Jones is the play maker on the outside for this team. Jones has great hands and his size make him a very tough cover. This offense averaged 34.6 points per game this year.
The Alabama defense only allowed 14.1 points per game this year, but they did struggle in all three of the team’s losses. This is a very talented defense, but their inexperience does catch up with them on occasion. The front four haven’t done a very good job pressuring the quarterback, but the team does have a great pair of safeties at the back of this defense. 
Michigan State
The Michigan State Spartans finished the regular season at 11-1, but they were left out of the BCS this year. The Michigan State schedule was relatively easy, and they weren’t playing terrific football at the end of the year. Mark Dantonio and his coaching staff have done a terrific job getting this program back to where it is today.
The Spartans are led by Kirk Cousins at the quarterback spot. Cousins is a solid quarterback who generally makes good decisions with the football. He completed 67.5% of his passes during the regular season. The Michigan State running game is loaded with talented running backs. Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell are the two primary ball carries, and they combined for 21 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Spartans leading receiver, B.J. Cunningham, will miss this game with a foot injury. This is a balanced offense that has been consistently good all year long.
The Michigan State defense improved quite a bit from last year, and they are the primary reason this team made such a large jump in the standings this season. Greg Jones is one of the best linebackers in the country, and this team can certainly stop the run well. The issue for this unit has been covering high quality receivers. The secondary is fairly small, and they have been beaten deep often this year. Julio Jones could give this team a lot of trouble. Michigan State will bring multiple blitz packages to try to make McElroy get rid of the ball quickly.
The Pick:
It may seem strange that a team with three losses is laying ten points against a one loss team, but I think it is justified in this case. I expect Alabama to move the ball well against the Spartans, but I do think Michigan State will have success offensively as well. The over looks like a solid value, and I’m leaning towards Alabama to cover the spread as well.
Alabama vs. Michigan State Score Prediction: Alabama 35 Michigan State 21
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