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Houston vs Miami Trends + Week 16 Pick

NFL Expert Picks – Win or Go Home for Texans and Dolphins

Texans vs. Dolphins (-3)
(O/U) 45
Sunday, December 27 – 1:00 PM ET

Win or go home!

That’s the slogan for this Sunday’s Week 16 matchup between the Houston Texans (7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS, 4-10 O/U) and Miami Dolphins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U).

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As two of six 7-7 AFC teams, neither team can clinch a playoff berth with a victory in this contest, but both teams would be eliminated from the postseason with a loss in this matchup.

“Bottom line, we’re in an elimination game, really, this weekend because whoever doesn’t come out of this game victorious has no chance,” Texans head coach Gary Kubiak told the Texans’ official Web site.

Houston 411

The Texans have won two straight games including a narrow 16-13 win over St. Louis in Week 15.

Veteran quarterback Matt Schaub passed for 367 yards with one touchdown and Andre Johnson caught nine passes for 196 yards, but the Texans failed to cover the NFL moneyline as a 14-point road favorite and has gone a discouraging 1-4 ATS over its last five games.

Miami 411

The Dolphins lost a heart-breaker to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15, losing 27-24 in overtime but covering the pro NFL football betting odds as a 5-point road underdog in the loss.

Second-year quarterback Chad Henne threw for 349 yards with one touchdown but also tossed three interceptions while Ricky Williams rushed for 80 yards and one TD on 19 carries.

Miami has covered the NFL moneyline in three straight games and four of its last five games overall.

Key Trends

Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.

Analysis: The Dolphins haven’t lost two consecutive games since getting off to a poor 0-3 start this season and have generally looked like one of the AFC’s stronger teams over the last month or so.

While these two teams enter this matchup with identical 7-7 SU records, the Miami Dolphins are clearly playing better football than the Texans.

The Dolphins have won four of its last six games, beating Carolina, New England and Jacksonville along the way. The Texans have beaten the lowly Seahawks and Rams in each of their last two games, but dropped their previous four games and couldn’t pull away from the Rams when it counted last week.

The Texans are averaging just 86.1 yards per game this season and rushed for just 52 total yards last week on 24 carries.

Miami has gone a solid 4-2 SU at home this season and have been nearly automatic at home in the month of December, recording a scorching 5-0 ATS mark in their last five games in the final month of the year.

I know the Texans have gone an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog, but I say back the Miami Dolphins in this home matchup.

Miami has gone an incendiary 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against AFC rivals and should be able to pull out a victory in this contest if second-year signal caller Chad Henne doesn’t throw multiple interceptions. The Dolphins are ranked 24th in the NFL in turnover margin at minus-seven, so holding on to the ball will be crucial.

In the end though, I just can’t see the one-dimensional Texans beating the Dolphins at home.

NFL Expert Picks: Miami Dolphins -3 Points

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  1. I agree that the Dolphins are the better team as they have not shown the inconsistency that has plagued Houston this season. Both teams need a win as this is basically a playoff game. Stick with Miami minus the three.