NFL Free Pick – Patriots Look to Destroy Raiders
The Oakland Raiders (3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS, 4-8-1 O/U) were trounced the last time out in what has been one of the worst seasons in franchise history. The New England Patriots (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U) narrowly beat the lowly Seattle Seahawks on Sunday and hope to take another step toward securing a postseason appearance by beating the rundown Raiders.
The Raiders were routed by the Denver Broncos 34-7 on Thursday, failing to cover the spread as a 9.5-point road underdog in the BetUS Sportsbook.
Second-year quarterback JaMarcus Russell completed nine passes in just 13 attempts for just 68 yards while throwing two costly interceptions that led to direct points for the Broncos.
Backup, Andrew Walter replaced Russell to start the third quarter but was intercepted late in the fourth quarter.
Oakland’s once-vaunted rushing attack was held to just 54 yards with starter, Justin Fargas picking up 50 yards on 12 carries.
Oakland allowed Denver quarterback Jay Cutler to throw three touchdowns in the loss.
“I’m sick of losing, especially like that,” Raiders tight end Zach Miller said. “We never really got going on offense and when we did, penalties and interceptions and fumbles killed us. As an offense we were inept again.”
The Patriots are coming off a narrow 24-21 comeback win over the Seahawks as they scored 11 points in the fourth quarter and shut out Seattle for the final quarter.
Quarterback Matt Cassel completed 26 of 44 passes for 268 yards with one touchdown and veteran running back Sammy Morris added another touchdown and 36 rushing yards on 11 carries.
“A huge win,” Cassel said. “We knew the season was on the line.”
“Trust me, if we don’t take care of this game there is no tomorrow,” veteran linebacker Junior Seau said.
Wide receiver Wes Welker caught 12 passes for 154 yards.
“They blitzed us and they were coming after him and he did a great job of keeping some poise,” Welker said of Cassel.
Here is a look at the key betting trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Pick:
New England is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
New England is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England’s last 9 games on the road
New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland’s last 6 games
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland’s last 5 games at home
NFL Odds
New England Patriots -7 -110
Oakland Raiders +7 -110
Over 40 -110
Under 40 -110
Analysis: I know the Patriots haven’t been exactly setting the league on fire lately with their often mediocre play, but I’m surprised this line is so low, seeing as how desperate the Patriots are at the moment.
Take the Pats to absolutely crush Oakland.
