NCAAF Week Six Free Picks Analysis – No.12 Oregon at No. 9 USC
After watching the USC Trojans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-2-1 O/U), get their rear ends handed to them in last week’s 27-21 road loss to Oregon State, I am surprised that Southern Cal is giving so many points to a talented Oregon Ducks (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U), team that is coming off a thorough 63-14 rout of beleaguered Washington on Saturday.
After winning their first three regular season games handily, including a dominating 35-3 rout over Ohio State, the Trojans were manhandled by the Beavers as true freshman running back Jacquizz Rodgers to pick up a whopping 186 yards on 37 carries while quarterback Lyle Moevao went an efficient 18-for-29 for 167 yards and two touchdowns.
“For whatever reason we just couldn’t tackle him,” Carroll said. “We’d hit him in the backfield and he’d keep bouncing. Him hiding behind the line of scrimmage was very effective. We had troubles with it all day.”
While Trojans quarterback Mark Sanchez three for 227 yards and three touchdowns, USC managed just 86 total rushing yards on 22 carries.
The Trojans run defense will get another stiff test when they take on an Oregon team that is ranked sixth in the nation in rushing, averaging a mind-blowing 308.6 rushing yards per game. The Ducks are also ranked sixth nationally is overall offense and seventh in scoring, averaging a whopping 47.4 points per contest.
Oregon put their Pac-10 counterparts away early, taking a 28-point lead into the half and saw running backs LaGarrette Blount pick up 98 yards and three touchdowns on 15 carries, Jeremiah Johnson add another 89 yards and three scores on 10 carries and third-stringer Remene Alston Jr. chip in another 73 yards on just six carries.
The Beavers do have questions at quarterback where Jeremiah Masoli got his second straight start on Saturday after suffering a concussion the previous week and former starter Justin Roper apparently ready to return to the team. An opportunistic Oregon State defense also forced Washington State into four turnovers.
Southern Cal is 7-3 when playing in October while Oregon has gone an impressive 8-2 in their last ten October contests.
Here are some key head-to-head NCAAF trends
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon’s last 5 games when playing Southern Cal
Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern Cal
Here is a look at some of the game’s key trends.
Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oregon is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Southern Cal is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Southern Cal’s last 8 games at home
Southern Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Analysis: Prior to last season’s 24-17 loss to the Beavers, USC had covered the spread in four consecutive matchups from 2001-2006, covering the spread on each occasion.
However, those were different times and different teams and this year’s version of the Trojans has been exposed with Saturday’s loss.
I fully expect the Oregon State Beavers to give the USC Trojans a steady diet of running plays as Southern Cal’s run defense takes an unmerciful pounding for the second consecutive week.
While I like the Trojans to find a way to win this contest and keep their national title hopes alive, I certainly don’t see them beating the Beavers by the 17 points it would take for them to cover the spread.
NCAAF Free Pick: Oregon State +7 Points
Oregon State +16½ -110
USC -16½ -110
