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Dolphins vs Bills Trends + Week 12 Pick

NFL Expert Picks – Miami Dolphins (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills

Dolphins (-3) vs. Bills (+3)
(O/U) 40
Sunday, November 29 1:00 PM ET

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The Miami Dolphins (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U) have looked absolutely fantastic the last two weeks, featuring former league rushing champion Ricky Williams as their go-to guy after Wildcat specialist Ronnie Brown was lost for the remainder of the regular season.

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The Fins have won two consecutive games coming into their Week 12 AFC East divisional matchup against a reeling Buffalo Bills (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 4-6 O/U) team that has lost three consecutive games.

The Dolphins beat the Carolina Panthers 24-17 in Week 11 as Ricky Williams ran for 119 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. Second-year quarterback Chad Henne completed 17 of 29 passes for 172 yards and one TD o help Miami cover the NFL point spread as 3.5-point road underdog.

The Fish have covered the spread in three of its last four games and five of seven overall.

The Bills played very tough in their first game since firing former head coach Dick Jauron but lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 18-15 in a hard-fought contest.

Buffalo did manage to cover the NFL point spread as a 9-point road underdog thanks to a pretty solid performance from veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The newly named full-time starter completed 18 of 31 passes for 297 yards with one touchdown but also tossed two costly interceptions in the loss. Veteran wideout Terrell Owens added nine catches for 197 yards and a TD.

Buffalo has cashed in for pro football betting members in three of its last five games.

Let’s take a look at some of the key trends for this matchup, followed by my analysis and expert NFL Picks.

Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.
Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
Bills are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Dolphins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo.

Analysis: I think the Bills are going to come out with another very solid effort for interim head coach Perry Fewell but I just don’t see them beating a Miami team that is playing its best football of the season at the perfect time.

Ricky Williams has been arguably the best running back in all of football the last two weeks and Miami’s defense has risen to the occasion, with both facts taking a lot of pressure off of young quarterback Chad Henne.

I like the Bills’ move of starting Ryan Fitzpatrick over Trent Edwards, but Buffalo has really struggled to run the ball this season and I think Miami’s defense will take advantage of that fact.

The key trends for this matchup also seem to suggest a Dolphins win and cover with the Fins going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against their AFC East division rivals and a scorching 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Buffalo’s 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win and 1-8 ATS record in their last nine home games do not bode very well, which is why I say take the Dolphins to win and cover the NFL point spread in this matchup.

Expert NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins -3 Points

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  1. The Dolphins have played their way back into playoff contention with an inexperienced back up quarterback and a 32 year old running back. I like Miami’s momentum to carry them over the Bills