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Colts vs. Dolphins Trends + Week 2 MNF Pick

NFL Monday Night Matchup – Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (+3)
O/U (41)
Monday, September 21 – 8:30 PM ET

The Miami Dolphins (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U) will be looking to avoid falling to 0-2 when they host the Indianapolis Colts (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U) and Peyton Manning at Land Shark Stadium tonight at 8:30 PM ET.

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Indianapolis will be looking to keep its regular season record unblemished after beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 14-12 in Week 1. The Colts failed to cover the NFL betting odds as a 6-point home favorite over the listless Jags while the game’s final score played well Under the 45-point O/U total.

Manning completed 28 of 38 passes for 301 yards with one touchdown and one interception while No. 1 wideout Reggie Wayne caught 10 passes for 162 yards and one score in the victory.

The Dolphins looked dazed and confused in its dismal 19-7 road loss to Atlanta in its regular season opener, turning the ball over four times while failing to cover the game’s NFL Betting Odds as a 4-point road underdog while the game’s final score played well Under the 44.5-point O/U total.

Veteran quarterback Chad Pennington completed 21 of 29 passes for 176 yards with one touchdown and one interception while running back Ronnie Brown rushed for 43 yards on 10 carries.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and NFL Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.

Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Colts are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
Dolphins are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

NFL Betting Odds

Indianapolis Colts -3 -120
Miami Dolphins +3 Ev
Over 41 -110
Under 41 -110

Analysis: The Miami Dolphins could be in big trouble if they lose this contest to the Colts, with the surprising New York Jets standing at 2-0 in the AFC East and, both, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots sporting respectable 1-1 SU records after two games.

While the Dolphins recorded a stellar 11-5 record last season and entered this year thinking they could either approach or improve on that mark, I have some serious reservations after watching their mostly pitiful display against the Falcons.

Yes, the Dolphins have gone an encouraging 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record, but Miami has also gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall while also posting a discouraging 1-4 ATS mark in their last five games as a home underdog.

While quarterback Chad Pennington is one of the game’s most accurate passers, he doesn’t have a very big arm and could use at least one gifted wide receiver that can consistently make plays, a luxury that the thin and inexperienced Dolphins wide receiving core doesn’t provide him with.

If the Dolphins are to have any chance at beating the high-powered Colts tonight, they will have to run the ball much more effectively than they did in their regular season opener when Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown rushed for a combined 82 yards on 17 total carries.

The fact of the matter however, is that the Dolphins just don’t have enough play-makers on their team to keep up with the explosive Colts’ offense. Indianapolis has also gone a stellar 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games and an impressive 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3 points.

Dolphins backers can take a bit of hope out of the fact that Indianapolis has gone just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings against the Dolphins overall, but I like them to improve on those numbers tonight as the road team in this matchup has gone a robust 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

I know the Dolphins have their backs up against the wall coming into tonight’s contest, but I say Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts smack them upside the head a couple of times anyway, as their fine defensive line abuses Miami’s inexperienced offensive line.

It’s going to be close BetUS NFL sports betting members, but I say Indy finds a way to get the job done while covering the spread by the slimmest of margins.

NFL Free Picks: Colts -3 Points

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Comments

Comments

  1. 8 games went over this week so far and even though I predicted this game to go over, I would lean back with the under as the odds makers have an incredible way of going 8-8 with the over/unders.

    I know this is not a very scientifc analysis, but I’m going with a strong hunch.

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