NFL Free Pick Lock Alert – Expect Chargers to Keep Faint Playoff Hopes Alive In K.C.
The San Diego Chargers (5-8 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 5-7-1 O/U) are coming off an emphatic 34-7 win over the Oakland Raiders last Thursday, covering the spread for NFL online betting backers as a 9.5-point home favorite. The Kansas City Chiefs (2-11 SU, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/U) are coming off a close 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos but covered the spread as I predicted in the BetUS Locker Room as a 9-point road underdog.
San Diego snapped a three-game losing streak and won for just the second time in seven games as quarterback Philip Rivers completed 10 of 22 passes for 214 yards and three touchdowns and running back LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 91 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries.
“It was desperately needed but it was one win for us,” Tomlinson said. “We don’t want to make it more than what it is.”
San Diego’s backup to Tomlinson, diminutive running back Darren Sproles caught two touchdown passes and had an 87-yard touchdown on a punt return called back because of an illegal block in the back. The Chargers forced two interceptions and one fumble from Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell.
“After the showing last week, I think we wanted to prove to everyone that that wasn’t us,” said Tomlinson. “It’s good that it was a short week. We got to show people who we are as a group.”
Blossoming quarterback Tyler Thigpen completed 17 of 32 passes for 187 yards with one touchdown, but Kansas City was held to just 83 rushing yards as a team, including just 36 yards by Larry Johnson on 11 carries.
The Chiefs let another lead slip away after going into the half up 17-14. While the Chiefs were held scoreless for the entire second half, Thigpen nearly sent the game into overtime, driving the Chiefs all the way to the Broncos 5-yard line , where his run up the middle on fourth-and-goal was stopped just short of the goal line by Broncos cornerback Dre’ Bly.
Thigpen said the play was designed to go to tight end Tony Gonzalez, who had five catches for 73 yards.
“Tony was getting mauled and I just decided to take off,” Thigpen said. “It was me one-on-one and I came up a yard short.”
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Pick.
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games
San Diego is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-20 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
NFL Odds
San Diego Chargers -5 -110
Kansas City Chiefs +5 -110
Over 46½ -110
Under 46½ -110
Analysis: While I think the Kansas City Chiefs may have their quarterback of the future on their hands in the impressive Tyler Thigpen, the club has a lot of shortcomings that I fully expect the flat-out desperate San Diego Chargers to expose. Despite the fact that they have been arguably the biggest disappointment in all of football this season, the Chargers still have tons of talent and should prevail easily here despite being on the road.
I also like the Under in this matchup featuring the offensively-challenged Chiefs and some pending foul Midwest weather.
Take the Bolts to cover with room to spare and the Under.
