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Browns vs Lions Trends + Week 11 Pick

NFL Betting Lock Alert – Toothless Lions Host Bungling Browns

NFL Week 11 – Cleveland Browns (+3½) vs. Detroit Lions (-3½)
(O/U) 37½
Sunday, November 22, 1:00 PM ET

Maybe it’s me, but I’m thinking the guy that scheduled this contest between the Cleveland Browns (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U) and Detroit Lions (1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U) should be immediately fired.

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Nevertheless, there is money to be made when these two teams square off on Sunday and I’ve got the lowdown on how to cash in on this contest NFL gamblers.

Let’s take a look at some of the key trends for this matchup.

Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Browns are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Browns last 5 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games.

How the Browns can win

First of all, the Browns need to try scoring more that the 8.7 points per game that they are averaging this season. Cleveland should have an excellent opportunity to do just that in this contest with the Lions giving up a league-worst 29.3 points per contest.

Cleveland played excellent defense in their 16-0 Week 10 loss to Baltimore and will stand an excellent chance of winning this game outright if they can duplicate that effort against the Lions.

How the Lions can win

Run the ball effectively against a Browns run defense that is ranked 30th in rushing defense. Detroit hasn’t been that bad running the ball this season, ranking 21st in rushing yards per game (103.1)

I also think the Lions may be able to connect on the deep ball a couple of times with strong-armed rookie quarterback Matt Stafford hitting athletic wideout Calvin Johnson against a Browns defense that is ranked 20th in pass defense.

Analysis: Betting on either ballclub in this matchup could be hazardous to your health pro football betting aficionados, which is exactly why I say, play the O/U total in this contest first and foremost.

While the Under has gone 4-1 in Cleveland’s last five games and 5-1 in Detroit’s last six home games, I am expecting both teams to be able to put up their fair share of points in this contest.

Cleveland is giving up 25.0 points per contest this season while the Lions are even worse in the defensive points allowed department, allowing a whopping 29.3 points per game.

I know the Browns have been totally inept at scoring this season, putting up a grand total of just nine total points over their last three games (ouch!) but I like Brady Quinn (or Derek Anderson) to throw at least one or two TD passes in this contest while Detroit’s Matt Stafford accomplishes the exact same feat for the Lions.

I know the Under looks like a lock here, but I think the polar opposite is going to take place in this contest with Over going a surprising 8-3 in Detroit’s last 11 games as a favorite of less than 10 points.

I also like the Lions to narrowly cover the spread in this matchup with Stafford making just enough plays to pull out the win and NFL point spread cover for Lions backers after their Week 10 push against the Minnesota Vikings.

It’s not going to be pretty, but I’m going with the Over and the Lions to narrowly cover.

NFL winning Picks: Lions 21 Browns 17

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  1. I went way out on a limb in predicting a low scoring game, declaring the UNDER as my lock of the week. At halftime there are ready 41 points on the board as both teams are moving the ball up and down the field better than they have all season long.