AFC Championship Game Pick – Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Baltimore Ravens (13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, 9-8-1 O/U) have been keeping their opponents on ‘lockdown’ better than a Federal penitentiary. The Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS, 9-8 O/U) have not displayed the defensive prowess of their counterparts in this contest, but find themselves in the AFC title game after emphatically spanking the San Diego Chargers in their only playoff game this season.
On Sunday, the bitter AFC North division rivals, will battle for the right to play in Super Bowl XLIII.
“What else would you expect, us and the Ravens,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. “It would be big if it was a scrimmage. This is for the AFC championship.”
The Ravens upset the Tennessee Titans 13-10 on Saturday as veteran place kicker Matt Stover booted a 43-yard field goal with just 53 seconds remaining to lift the Ravens to victory.
“I would say this would be the No. 1 (kick in my career),” Stover said, then added, “but we’ve got some more kicks, too. So let’s just be humble about that.”
The Ravens covered the spread for BetUS NFL sports betting backers everywhere as a 3-point road underdog while the 23 combined points fell UNDER the posted O/U total of 34 points.
Strong-armed rookie quarterback Joe Flacco completed 11 of 22 passes for 161 yards with one touchdown, hooking up with veteran wide receiver Derrick Mason five times for 78 yards and a touchdown.
While the Titans rushed for 116 yards on 28 total carries, the Ravens also forced five fumbles, recovering two while intercepting Collins once for a +3 turnover differential.
“We just continued to fight and refused to let them in (the end zone),” linebacker Bart Scott said. “We made the plays we had to … the ball came out. We’ll take it any way we can get it.”
The Steelers defeated the fraud San Diego Chargers 35-24 on Sunday to easily cover the spread as a 6-point home favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook.
Veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger completed 17 of 26 passes for 181 yards and one touchdown but it was the rushing of running back Willie Parker who ran for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 27 carries, which led the Steelers to victory.
Pittsburgh also pulled off one of the most impressive scoring drives I have ever seen, holding the ball for the entire third period after allowing the Chargers just one offensive play – an interception.
“We were standing on the sideline and it was like, ‘We were in for one play in the quarter and it was an interception,”‘ Rivers said. “There was a little bit of disbelief. … You can’t call it a fluke, those guys made plays, but that was crazy.”
Pittsburgh also bucked the trend of road teams winning in the postseason, taking care of their business at Heinz Field.
“We talked about that, all the home teams – the No. 1 and 2 seeds – weren’t playing as well,” said wide receiver Santonio Holmes, who got Pittsburgh going with a 67-yard punt return touchdown in the first quarter. “But we knew the road to the Super Bowl can run through Pittsburgh when we saw Baltimore won (at Tennessee). It was time to turn it on.”
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Pick.
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore
NFL Odds
Baltimore Ravens +6 -110
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 -110
Over 34 -110
Under 34 -110
Analysis: While the Steelers are absolutely ‘for real’ and are playing at home in this contest, I just don’t see them winning this contest with the way the Baltimore Ravens are playing defense these days.
Over their last three contests, the Ravens have limited their opponents to just 8.7 points per contest while Pittsburgh has given up 18.3 points per game defensively.
Maybe it’s me but it seems like the Ravens only need 13 points to win any game since their opponents can’t even reach double figures.
I also want to advise my beloved BetUS NFL sports betting nuts to not expect Willie Parker to go running wild again this week either.
I think the Ravens, with their powerful defense – and just enough Joe Flacco and Willis McGahee, win this contest by the skin of their collective teeth.
