Steve Merril’s NCAA Preview: Arizona Wildcats
Controversial bid
When the 34 at-large teams were announced for the NCAA tournament, the most controversial bid went to Arizona which extended Wildcat’s NCAA-leading streak of tournament appearances to 25 in a row. Arizona was just 19-13 straight-up and many felt that a non-BCS team such as San Diego State, St. Mary’s-CA, or Creighton should have been dancing.Arizona received the bid due to their tough schedule of Pac-10 opponents which included wins versus UCLA, USC, and Washington, and also impressive non-conference wins versus Kansas, Gonzaga, and San Diego State.
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Cinderella or not?
Arizona has quieted their critics by advancing to the Sweet Sixteen round, however the first two wins came against Utah (+1) and Cleveland State (-3), so the Wildcats have benefited from an extremely favorable schedule in the tournament. Arizona (#12 seed) and Purdue (#5 seed) are the only teams that were not a Top 4 seed to advance to the Round of 16 this year. Normally, a #12 seed off back-to-back wins would be considered a Cinderella story, however the fact Arizona has been to 25 straight tournaments and has won a national title makes this a hotly debated topic.
Technically speaking, Arizona is a Cinderella story as they were not considered a serious national title contender with odds as high as 250-to-1 last week. Just like when #8 seed Villanova won the national title in 1985, it does not matter if you are a big name team as those Wildcats were definitely a Cinderella squad.
The difference is that Villanova defeated a #1 ranked Georgetown in the finals. The fact that Arizona has only been a 1-point underdog and a 3-point favorite in their first two wins is what leaves many doubting the ‘Cats. Arizona will get their chance at true Cinderella stardom on Friday night when they face #1 ranked Louisville.
Offense first
The strength of this Arizona squad is a strong offense that averages 72.5 points per game and 47.7% FG (versus opponents that allow just 65.5 ppg and 43.1%).
Arizona gets 75% of their points from two-point range, but they are still a strong three-point shooting club as they average 39.4% from beyond the arc (versus opponents that allow just 34.8%). The Wildcats also average a fantastic 73.9% from the free throw line.
Arizona’s weakness has been a lack of depth and a mediocre defense that has been particularly poor down low as the Wildcats allow 49.4% from two-point range which ranks only 228th in the nation and is above the national average of just 48.0%.
Bottom Line
Arizona deserved to make the NCAA tournament as they were one of the top 34 remaining at-large teams, however two wins versus a pair of mediocre opponents (Utah and Cleveland State) does not suddenly make Arizona a national title contender.
The Wildcats will now face a tough Louisville pressure defense which could wear down a thin Arizona lineup which gets 82% of their total minutes from starters and only 18% from their reserves (ranks 340th out of 344).
According to the oddsmakers, Louisville has an 82% change of winning Friday’s game straight-up which means Arizona’s run will likely end. Arizona is not for real from a championship perspective and for this reason they should be considered a Cinderella story if they continue to win. Perhaps the biggest Cinderella story is the success of Arizona interim head coach Russ Pennell who is not even a candidate for the head coaching job next season.
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