Categories
Fight Club

Couture vs. Lesnar UFC 91 Sportsbook Preview

A preview of UFC 91: Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar. With Couture being the underdog against Lesnar, a man with only three MMA bouts under his belt…

UFC 91: Randy Couture Vs. Brock Lesnar

Finally, Randy Couture is fighting again in the UFC. But it won’t be against Fedor Emelianenko; instead, Couture is being put into the Octagon this Saturday against a man with only three MMA bouts under his belt – and Couture is the underdog.

The story becomes clearer – and even more interesting – when the greenhorn in question is Brock Lesnar. His presence in the main event of Saturday’s UFC 91 card in Las Vegas has UFC prez Dana White predicting 1.2 million PPV buys, which would easily make this the biggest money fight in the history of the sport. UFC 66 brought in 1.05 million viewers two years ago with Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell in the main event.

If you’re one of the new fans White hopes to land, or if you’re a casual MMA fan who’s making the leap to handicapper, this is your moment. Lesnar’s fame and reputation was built long before he signed with UFC in October 2007. The former NCAA wrestling champion spent three years with the WWE, winning the promotion’s top title as a “rookie” and main-eventing WrestleMania XIX. Then Lesnar gave it all up to try out for the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings in 2004. He was a late cut.

It’s not the traditional path for a UFC fighter. Ken Shamrock, Dan Severn and Tank Abbott were among those who took the opposite path into the pro-wrestling ring after already making a name for themselves in MMA. And Lesnar’s lone appearance for K-1 in 2007 (a submission win over tomato can Min-Soo Kim after just 69 seconds) didn’t set the combat world on its ear.

But when Lesnar debuted at UFC 81, he was a –165 favorite against former heavyweight champion Frank Mir. Lesnar got the highest salary of any fighter on the card at $250,000; Mir earned $80,000. Lesnar would have made another $200,000 that night, but Mir survived an early beatdown, caught his opponent in a kneebar and secured the submission victory after 90 seconds.

UFC betting in the Bodog Sportsbook.

Undaunted, Lesnar returned six months later at UFC 87 as a –240 favorite over Heath Herring, another popular heavyweight but much less accomplished than Mir. Lesnar got the duke in his home state of Minnesota with a unanimous decision after completely dominating the fight. He landed 96 strikes to 41 for Herring, and executed five of six takedown attempts to Herring’s goose egg.

The numbers that really made White’s eyes light up: 650,000 and 625,000. Those are the estimated buyrates from Lesnar’s first two nights in the UFC. Only three other cards in company history have done better. In February, the Wrestling Observer cited industry sources that projected about 300,000 fewer buys for UFC 81 had Lesnar not been on the card. That’s why he gets the big bucks.

The same starpower that vaulted Lesnar into Saturday’s main event makes him a poor value bet as a –140 favorite against one of the most decorated (and popular) fighters in MMA history. His supporters are counting on his potential and his attitude, and Lesnar certainly has both of those in spades. But neither quality is easy to measure.

Bet on Couture vs. Lesnar in the Bodog’s online sports betting.

Couture, meanwhile, has beaten them all: Ortiz, Liddell, Tim Sylvia and Vitor Belfort, just to name a few. This will be his first fight in 2008 and his first since splitting with the UFC just as Lesnar was coming on board. Couture stated some grievances over payouts, and the inability to arrange a big-money bout with Emelianenko, one of the few top MMA fighters to avoid signing with White. But Couture signed a new three-fight deal in September, and goes into Saturday’s fight as the recognized Heavyweight champion.

At 45 years old and giving up about 50 pounds to the challenger, Couture is in danger of biting off more than he can chew. Age and size were also the concern when Couture stepped into the Octagon with Sylvia, but the veteran regained his belt by wearing his larger opponent down, landing 138 strikes to 39 and completing seven of 10 takedown attempts. Couture dominated Ortiz much the same way at UFC 44 and had Gabriel Gonzaga sucking wind before registering the TKO at UFC 74. You can’t teach size, but conditioning is another matter entirely.

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"