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Free UFC Ultimate Fighter Finale Picks – TUF 13 Lines

UFC Ultimate Fighter Finale Guida vs Pettis Preview & Pick

The finalists for The Ultimate Fighter 13 won’t be revealed until after Wednesday’s semifinal bouts are aired. But there are some veteran fighters also throwing leather on Saturday’s fight card – and those more experienced guys are often the better ones to bet on, as we know what to expect from them. Here are my picks for Guida/Pettis and Stephens/Downes.


Event: TUF 13 Finale
Date: June 4, 2011
Time: 9pm ET/6pm PT
Location: The Pearl at The Palms Casino Resort, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Spike TV

Bet on TUF 13

Clay Guida (28-11) vs Anthony Pettis (13-1)
UFC odds: Guida +135, Pettis -165

It’s tough being a UFC lightweight. The division was already a crowded shark tank, full of talent, and the WEC merger doubled that group. Anthony Pettis, the final WEC lightweight champion, will make his UFC debut against Clay “The Carpenter” Guida this Saturday night. Pettis became famous for his jump-off-the-wall “Showtime Kick” on Ben Henderson. After Henderson excelled in his own UFC debut last month, we have to take Pettis seriously.

The bigger question is whether or not we should take Guida seriously. Personally, I’ve never liked him as a fighter. He bounces around and uses his endless energy – plus his hair – to make himself look busy and win points from the judges. As much as I harp on Guida, however, I give him credit for his recent efforts. He looked legit in submitting Shannon Gugerty, Rafael Dos Ajos and Takanori Gomi.

However, though Guida has vaulted himself into the contender picture, I think Pettis is a bad matchup for him. His last four UFC losses are to Tyson Griffin, Roger Huerta, Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian. All four guys are well-rounded, athletic fighters. Guida fares better against one-dimensional guys or guys who struggle with their cardio – like Gomi.

Guida works hard but he just doesn’t have the true fighting skill to handle the talented Pettis, who has 11 of 13 wins by finish (five knockouts, six submissions). Pick: Pettis -165

Jeremy Stephens (19-6) vs Danny Downes (9-1)
UFC odds: OFF

Jeremy Stephens was supposed to face the last Ultimate Fighter winner, Jonathan Brookins, but Brookins pulled out with an eye injury. His replacement, Danny Downes, is more of a striker and that should tickle Stephens pink.

Few lightweights punch as hard as Jeremy Stephens. He really showed that when he dropped Marcus Davis, who previously fought at 170 pounds, was a former pro boxer and was considered big even for that weight class. Stephens loves to throw bombs. He can be beaten with a good game plan, however, as he isn’t the smartest fighter out there.

Danny Downes is a relative unknown but his pedigree is strong. He trains with Duke Roufus and is Anthony Pettis’ training partner. He only has one loss and it came via submission; he’s never been knocked out.

Since Stephens relies more on brawn than brains, a last-minute matchup may not bode well for him. He won’t know what to expect. I’ll give the edge to Downes. Pick: Downes

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About Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.



  1. TUF 13 should be great. The 6-figure contract on the horizon gets closer and closer.