UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson Preview & Picks
Behold, the beauty of the UFC’s seven-division format! A week after the light heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Rampage Jackson, another belt goes on the line in a free-TV event this Saturday. Time to make some picks.
UFC BANTAMWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Dominick Cruz (18-1) vs Demetrious Johnson (10-1)
UFC odds: Cruz -440, Johnson +350
Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz is done being the underdog. He officially elevated himself to juggernaut status with his title defense against the only man to beat him, Urijah Faber, this past July.
Cruz impressed on many levels against Faber. The pace he kept was as relentless as any fighter in the UFC can keep. For five rounds straight, he stuck and moved and danced all around the cage; we kept waiting for him to tire and he never did. Cruz is built to outlast pretty much any opponent imaginable.
And it’s not that Cruz is just a cardio machine. The champ has some of the sport’s trickiest striking. He takes bizarre angles, never stops moving and makes himself impossible to hit. Cruz isn’t a finisher but he’s a point-scoring machine with the judges. His hands are crazy-fast and accurate.
Enter the challenger: rising star Demetrious Johnson. The little sparkplug also keeps a tremendous pace and has overpowered his opponents with his wrestling. His grappling ability and overall fitness give him a chance against Cruz.
However, I don’t see where Johnson has any definite advantage. It feels like no contest in the striking game. Johnson may have a slight power edge but no one can solve Cruz’s technique these days. Cruz has a longer reach, too.
Some bettors may believe Johnson can take Cruz down but I don’t buy it. Though he’s become more of a striker, Cruz’s started as a wrestler. He can handle himself against good grapplers. Faber got the best of him the first time but not in the rematch.
I’d expect a wild pace, minimal damage to both fighters and a decision victory for Cruz on Saturday.
Pick: Cruz -440
Heavyweight: Pat Barry (6-3) vs Stefan Struve (21-5)
UFC odds: OFF
The odds for Pat Barry and Stefan Struve aren’t up at major books yet but should be any day now given these heavyweights’ names. Both guys have battled some of the division’s best. [ad-3573245]
Of two, Struve is the more well-rounded fighter. The 6’11” monster can hurt opponents with his kickboxing and has some of the division’s best, most underrated submissions.
But if there’s a guy built to chop down “The Skyscraper,” it may be Pat Barry. He isn’t a perfect fighter by any means. In fact, he’s one-dimensional. Barry is a pure kickboxer with little to no grappling ability.
But, boy, does he ever have power in his legs and fists. Barry’s strikes are so devastating that he’s won multiple belts by leg-kick knockout. Though Struve is a skilled young fighter, he has a weak chin. His three losses in the UFC came against Junior Dos Santos, Roy Nelson and Travis Browne, all by highlight-reel knockout.
Struve has good ground skills but he’s not a true takedown artist, so a fighter like Barry won’t have to worry about Struve shooting on him. He should successfully walk through Struve’s strikes and put him away with heavy blows.
Pick: Barry
Welterweight: Anthony Johnson (9-3) vs Charlie Brenneman (14-2)
UFC odds: OFF
What do we do with Charlie Brenneman? He’s a relative unknown but he’s fresh off one of the year’s biggest upsets. No one expected him to beat Rick Story, especially by outgrappling him.
Does that mean we should take Brenneman seriously against Anthony Johnson? It depends. If Johnson fights a dumb fight and battles Brenneman in the trenches, he could get outworked or outgrappled. But if he relies on his huge size advantage – there just isn’t a bigger guy at 170 – then Johnson should use his reach to outstrike Brenneman.
Johnson’s last bout, a victory over Dan Hardy, impressed me because of his gameplanning. He knew he was the better grappler than Hardy and kept the fight on the ground. By the same logic, I expect Johnson to use his striking advantage to keep Saturday’s bout where Brenneman is less comfortable.
Look for “Rumble” Johnson to win, possibly via knockout.
Pick: Johnson
