UFC 98 Preview/Predictions
Sportsbook traffic for the UFC 98 odds should be very telling; will it be down after the supremely disappointing UFC 97 left fans – particularly of the layman variety – bored to tears? Thankfully, Dana White has a string of exciting cards laid out for the spring and summer, starting with the UFC 98 odds, which feature an evenly matched title fight and a long-awaited grudge match.
Let’s make some picks.
Rashad Evans (18-0-1) vs Lyoto Machida (14-0) – for UFC light heavyweight championship
UFC odds: Evans +160, Machida -200
It’s not often that a challenger has better UFC odds than a champion but, with both of these fighters undefeated in MMA betting, the Evans vs Machida line may as well be a coin flip. Casual UFC fan beware; these are arguably the two best defensive fighters in the sport today, so the bout should be more chess match than slug fest.
Using his big frame and strong wrestling skills, Evans carved a niche in UFC betting as a boring “lay and pray” fighter who couldn’t finish fights – until he dropped legend Chuck Liddell in one of UFC history’s most famous knockouts. The big win proved that Evans did in fact have one-punch knockout power and he suddenly found himself in a title fight with Forrest Griffin.
Capitalizing on Griffin’s mistakes, Evans wrestled him to the canvas and ground-and-pounded his way to the UFC lightweight title. The key to Evans’ victory wasn’t just what he did to Griffin, but also what Griffin couldn’t do to him – hit him. Evans’ defense – particularly his ability to block punches – is superb and a big reason why he hasn’t lost yet in UFC betting.
In Machida, though, he faces not only his defensive match, but the best technical fighter he’s seen yet. Evans succeeds through keeping his hands high and deflecting punches, whereas Machida, via his bizarre, upright Karate stance, simply doesn’t get hit. In fact, no fighter allows fewer successful strikes per attempt than Machida. Evans will thus have to get “the Dragon” to the ground to win. To do so, he’ll have to dodge Machida’s underrated strikes. When he needs to, Machida can floor opponents, as he did against Thiago Silva and Tito Ortiz (who has similar strengths and weaknesses to Evans). This should be a close fight and it may go the distance, but Machida is the better sports wagering choice. His defense is unmatched, even by Evans, and he should be the first fighter to successfully hurt Rashad.
Sportsbook pick: Machida -200
Matt Hughes (43-7) vs Matt Serra (16-5)
UFC odds: Hughes -300, Serra +240
After years of anticipation and postponements due to training injuries, former Ultimate Fighter coaching opponents Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, two of the mouthiest fighters in UFC betting, finally settle the score. Serra, one of the greatest welterweights of all time, has publicly indicated this will be his last fight. Sportsbook odds favor him heavily and with good reason. Even though Serra caught Georges St-Pierre off guard in winning the welterweight title, his rematch with GSP is much more telling of what should happen in the UFC 98 odds. St-Pierre, a much bigger fighter, manhandled Serra on the ground. Hughes is another big welterweight and his wrestling prowess should overcome Serra’s underrated Jiu-Jitsu as he puts the exclamation mark on a great career.
