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UFC 159 Jones vs. Sonnen Handicapping | Betting Preview | Free UFC Picks

UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen

The fight that almost nobody called for finally goes down on Saturday when Jon Jones, one of the most dominant Light Heavyweight fighters ever seen takes on a Middleweight mouthpiece that seemed to somehow talk his way into this fight – and we all know that Chael Sonnen can talk!

Date: April 27, 2013
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
UFC Odds From Bovada

Main Card:

Jon Jones (17-1-0): -875
Chael Sonnen (27-12-1): +675

Sonnen brings some of the best technical classic wrestling to the Octagon – he is strong and when he gets you down, there is simply no getting up. Other than that, Sonnen has to be viewed as average in every other aspect of MMA. He has made a career of bullying his opponents – something that just won’t happen against Jon Jones.

Jones is perhaps the most athletic fighter in the UFC. He is long, he is lanky, he is quick, he is unorthodox and he is simply top notch anywhere a fight happens to go. Taking a look at whom he’s defeated is a who’s who of MMA legendry – Shogun Rua, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Rampage Jackson and Vitor Belfort to name a few. His only career loss came against Matt Hamill – by DQ in a fight he was totally dominating. Nobody has been close to Jon Jones in his 18 fight UFC career.

Jones will have a huge striking advantage in this fight and he may just have the edge on the ground as well. Perhaps the biggest advantage for Jones however will be his size – Sonnen is a Middleweight hoping to hang with an absolutely elite Light Heavyweight – I can’t see it happening. Jones will pick Sonnen apart on his feet and finish this fight in style on the ground – Sonnen has been submitted eight times in his career already.

While I am tempted to put a little dough on the upset, common sense has crept in!

Pick: Jon Jones -875

Alan Belcher (18-7-0): +150
Michael Bisping (23-5-0): -170

A rather prickly encounter immediately precedes the Main Event. Michael Bisping and Alan Belcher have made no bones about their disdain for each other – now they get to show it in the Octagon. Both of these men are in the second tier of Middleweights – close to title contention but not quite at the Anderson Silva level. Both have gone 1-2 in their last three fights against top Middleweights and both absolutely need the win to get their names back in the contender conversation again.

Belcher and Bisping are both elite strikers with underrated ground games but this fight is most likely to stay standing. I like the footwork of Bisping to be too much for Belcher in this one – any tiny advantage may be enough for victory in this battle of evenly matched stars. Bisping likely won’t engage Belcher all that much – movement will be his game. This fight is almost certainly headed for a decision with Bisping doing enough from the outside to outpoint Belcher.

Pick: Michael Bisping -170

Roy Nelson (18-7-0): -240
Cheick Kongo (18-7-2): +200

Heavyweights clash at UFC 159 when Roy Nelson returns to the Octagon against Cheick Kongo. We all know what Nelson brings to the table – immense power, a granite chin and an elite grappling skill set. Kongo has won three of his last four fights but has been somewhat unflattering inside the Octagon as of late.

Kongo can’t help but engaging in striking battles for some reason – he always seems to get himself into slugfests. Against Nelson, this is a dangerous proposition. He won’t be able to hurt Nelson’s cement head and he won’t be able to duck Nelson’s hay-makers. It all adds up to and early night for both men and a huge headache for Cheick Kongo.

Pick: Roy Nelson -240

Phil Davis (10-1-1): -350
Vinny Magalhaes (10-5-0): +270

Former M-1 champion Vinny Magalhaes brings his incredible Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops to the Octagon Saturday against the well rounded Phil Davis – loser of just one fight in his 12 fight career. Davis is an elite wrestler with emerging striking – he has defeated the likes of Alexander Gustafsson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Brian Stann over his career.

Magalhaes has an incredible submission game but the problem here is that he has to hope to get Davis to the mat in order to apply his strategy and Davis’s wrestling chops should be enough to prevent this from happening. Expect the athleticism and wrestling skills of Davis to dominate in this one – Magalhaes’s tremendous skills will be minimized by the striking advantage and the overall strength and octagon control of Davis. [ad-3573245]

Pick: Phil Davis -320

Pat Healy (29-16-0): +265
Jim Miller (22-4-0): -315

Veteran Lightweights clash in the first fight on the Pay-Per-View card Saturday when former Strikeforce standout Pat Healy takes on Jim Miller. Both will be trying to enter the Title Contender conversation on Saturday. Miller is as tough as nails – a wrestler primarily with a terrific submission game while Healy has a very similar skill set although it may not quite be at the caliber of Miller.

In a fight between two fairly evenly matched wrestlers, the striking game will likely be the difference. Miller has the technical striking edge here and the fact that he has been inside the Octagon with the superior challengers has me leaning Miller’s way in a decision victory. It should be entertaining and it should be Miller with his hand raised at the end of the night.

Pick: Jim Miller -315

FX & Facebook Preliminary Card

Sarah McMann (6-0-0): -665
Sheila Gaff (10-4-1): +515
Pick: Sarah McMann -665

Johnny Bedford (19-9-1): -140
Bryan Caraway (17-6-0): +120
Pick: Johnny Bedford -140

Cody McKenzie (13-3-0): +150
Leonard Garcia (15-10-1): -170
Pick: Leonard Garcia -170

Rustam Khabilov (15-1-0): -290
Yancy Medeiros (9-0-0): +245
Pick: Rustam Khabilov -290

James Head (9-3-0): -155
Nick Catone (9-4-0): +135
Pick: James Head -155

Kurt Holobaugh (7-1-0): +105
Steven Siler (21-10-0): -125
Pick: Steven Siler -125

Ovince St. Preux (12-5-0): -195
Gian Villante (10-3-0): +170
Pick: Gian Villante +170

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.