UFC 158: St. Pierre vs. Diaz
Georges St. Pierre finally gets the fight he’s been seeking for a couple of years when he takes on the brash, obnoxious Nick Diaz at UFC 158 – assuming that Diaz doesn’t do something stupid between now and fight time.
Date: March 16, 2013
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
UFC Odds From Bovada
Main Event
Georges St. Pierre (23-2-0): -500
Nick Diaz (26-7-0): +350
Diaz is one of the toughest men on the planet – incredible boxing with a granite chin. He is no slouch on the ground either – he is a Gracie Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
GSP has been known as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet for a reason. He is the best wrestler in the division, his top control is like no other, his ability to adapt and learn from every fight is a thing of legend and his smarts seems to be on a different level from every other MMA practitioner.
As mentioned GSP is a cerebral guy – he knows how to stay out of his opponents’ danger areas. While I expect Diaz to tag Georges on the feet a few times, I also think this fight will hit the mat quickly and it will remain there for the majority of the bout. Watch for Georges to draw Nick into his type of fight – not the other way around.
St. Pierre’s takedowns and top control will be the difference in a lopsided decision win for Georges St. Pierre. Will anyone else get pleasure out of seeing Nick Diaz get beaten down?
Pick: Georges St. Pierre -500
Main Card
Carlos Condit (28-6-0): +110
Johny Hendricks (14-1-0): -140
Johny Hendricks steps in for injured Rory MacDonald to take on one of the best strikers in the division – former interim champ Carlos Condit. Hendricks has that rare combination of top tier wrestling and serious one-punch knockout power.
Condit has terrific skills anywhere this fight happens to go – 13 submission victories and 13 (T)KOs in his career.
This could end up being the Fight of the Night. While I respect the current run that Hendricks is on, I love the all around game of Carlos Condit and his ability to defend any sort of MMA tactic to get it done Saturday. Condit is too crafty, too good on his feet, too proficient on the ground and too motivated (to get another shot at GSP) to be denied. I suppose Hendricks could land one of his incredible fight-ending strikes but Condit is aware of Hendricks’ power.
After all, Condit easily defeated one of the best strikers in the game – Nick Diaz only a few months ago.
Pick: Carlos Condit +110
Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0): -165
Nate Marquardt (32-11-2): +135
Welcome back to the UFC Nate Marquart! The former Strikeforce Middleweight champion was never supposed to be back in the organization but the stars have aligned and Nate finds himself on the main card of a good UFC event. His opponent – Jake Ellenberger whose aggression and superior striking skills will be anything but welcoming to Mr. Marquart.
Ellenberger also possesses top notch wrestling – takedowns should be a big part of Jake’s game Saturday.
Marquart brings experience, a solid ground game and a good power striking game into Saturday’s fight. But a look at his last fight reveals that Nate can be outstruck, outwrestled and outmaneuvered by elite grapplers like Ellenberger.
Ellenberger has some work to do in order to get back to the status he held three or four fights back – it all starts with a dominant win over Nate Marquart Saturday.
Pick: Jake Ellenberger -165
Chris Camozzi (18-5-0): -115
Nick Ring (13-1-0): -115
Two former TUF 11 alums forced out of the tournament by injury meet in what should be a very interesting striking battle Saturday – Camozzi being the Muay Thai practitioner and Ring being the more technical boxer.
Chris Camozzi won three fights with the organization in 2012 while Ring’s only professional loss came at the hands of Tim Boetsch last year. [ad-3573245]
Camozzi has been far more convincing in his victories – two of Ring’s wins with the UFC were controversial decisions to say the least. I like Camozzi to get it done Saturday – he enters as the hotter of the two fighters with a better all around skill set. Truth be told, Ring hasn’t been all that impressive in his UFC career.
Pick: Chris Camozzi -115
Mike Ricci (7-3-0): -280
Colin Fletcher (8-2-0): +210
Tall Lightweights square off Saturday to open the Pay-per-view card when Canadian Mike Ricci takes on Colin Fletcher. Both men have decent striking and both are coming off losses to fighters that manhandled them on the mat. Neither men would like to see this fight dragged to the mat but if this fight is taken to the ground, it favors Ricci who trains with some of the best mat magicians in the game – GSP being one.
That said I think the better striker will prevail in this one. That distinction belongs to Mike Ricci who will have to wade through the freaky reach of Fletcher but should be able to do enough damage with his technical know-how and his decent power.
Pick: Mike Ricci -280
FX Preliminary Card (8pm ET)
Patrick Cote (18-8-0): -170 vs. Bobby Voelker (24-8-0): +140
Pick: Bobby Voelker +140
Antonio Carvalho (15-5-0): +190 vs. Darren Elkins (15-2-0): -240
Pick: Antonio Carvalho +190
Dan Miller (14-6-0): +200 vs. Jordan Mein (26-8-0): -260
Pick: Jordan Mein -260
Daron Cruickshank (12-2-0): -190 vs. John Makdessi (10-2-0): +155
Pick: Daron Cruickshank -190
Facebook Preliminary Card (6:35pm ET)
Quinn Mulhern (18-2-0): +300 vs. Rick Story (14-6-0): -400
Pick: Rick Story -400
Issei Tamura (7-3-0): +375 vs. T.J. Dillashaw (6-1-0): -550
Pick: T.J. Dillashaw -550
Reuben Duran (8-4-1): -135 vs. George Roop (12-9-1): +115
Pick: George Roop +115
