UFC 143 Diaz vs. Condit Odds & Handicapping
The interim Welterweight Title is on the line on Saturday night when Nick Diaz takes on Carlos Condit.
UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit
Date/Time: Saturday, February 4, 2012, 10pm ET/7PM PT
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view, FX (Prelims)
Main Card:
Nick Diaz (26-7, 1 NC): -200
Carlos Condit (27-5): +160
Both fighters have great standup and terrific ground games and both feel that they have the stuff to beat George St. Pierre. So who wins this fight and why?
Diaz is one of the most gifted boxers in the UFC and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu Black Belt makes him a force on the ground particularly off his back. Condit is incredibly well rounded himself – 13 (T) KOs and 13 submissions in 27 wins prove this point to a tee. The difference could easily come down to conditioning in this five round fight.
Nick Diaz has a motor that just won’t stop and his style is almost impossible to defend. Look for Diaz to wear Condit down on Saturday – I just can’t see “The Natural Born Killer” being able to keep up with the elder Diaz. Give Nick the edge on his feet, a slight edge on the ground and a big advantage in conditioning. In a grueling fight, I like Diaz to stake claim as St. Pierre’s biggest threat in the Welterweight Division.
Pick: Nick Diaz -200
Roy Nelson (16-6): +135
Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1): -165
Two Heavyweight jiu-jitsu Black Belts – ya that’s right Heavyweight jiu-jitsu Black Belts step into the Octagon on Saturday night with aims of making some waves in the increasingly stacked Division in the UFC. Chances are that this fight stays standing however!
Fabricio Werdum makes his UFC debut after losing his last time out in a Strikeforce Heavyweight Title match to Alistair Overeem. Roy Nelson comes in having won his last fight against Mirko Cro-Cop – this after two straight defeats. Both men can grapple, both can strike and both have a good amount of experience in MMA.
If there is one thing about Roy Nelson that we all know is that he can take a punch. Don’t believe me? Find a video of his fight with Junior dos Santos – Junior beat him up and Nelson kept coming. Nelson will need his chin to be his best attribute against the powerful and technical Werdum Muay Thai.
Werdum is likely better in every aspect of MMA even if the edge is slight. Chances are that Werdum won’t be able to finish Nelson but a Decision Victory is there for the taking. Nelson is basically a “C+ Heavyweight” and he is going up against a “B+ Heavyweight” Take the B+ in this one.
Pick: Fabricio Werdum -165
Mike Pierce (13-4): +190
Josh Koscheck (16-5): -240
Two high level Welterweight wrestlers will try to throw their names into the Welterweight title picture when they do battle on Saturday night. Josh Koscheck has been there – near the top and challenging for a title while Pierce has not quite gotten over that hump – losses to Jon Fitch and Johny Hendricks has kept him on the outside looking in.
Mike Pierce’s only chance will be to outwrestle Josh Koscheck but Koscheck is on par with or may have a slight edge over Hendricks in that department. Koscheck, with his athleticism should be able to stifle any takedown attempts by Hendricks, keep the fight standing and pick his opponent apart with his quicker and more technical striking game.
Pick: Josh Koscheck -240
Renan Barao (27-1, 1 NC): -240
Scott Jorgensen (13-4): +190
Two Bantamweights on quite a roll meet on the Main Card at UFC 143 when Renen Barao, who hasn’t lost since 2005 takes won winner of seven of his last eight fights, Scott Jorgensen. Barao will look to control the fight with his good technical striking and his superb jiu-jitsu game while Jorgensen will need a solid wrestling performance to pull off the victory.
Jorgensen is a tough guy but will find it nearly impossible to neutralize Barao’s well rounded and relentless style. Jorgensen may hang around for a while but the skills and confidence of Barao will be too much. Look for Barao to earn a shot at Dominick Cruz.
Pick: Renan Barao -240
Ed Herman (19-7): -280
Clifford Starks (8-0): +210
Ed Herman – remember him? He’s rekindled his career and has made it back to the Main Card of a UFC event. At UFC 143 he takes on undefeated prospect Clifford Starks. Both men have decent wrestling and both have good aspects of their standup game. In a close fight, the X-factor just may be experience. There is not a whole lot that Starks can bring that Herman hasn’t already seen. A newly motivated Herman should impress all on Saturday night with a good submission game and his terrific standup.
Pick: Ed Herman -280
Preliminary Card:
Max Holloway (4-0): +350
Dustin Poirier (11-1): -500
Max Holloway is certainly one of the up-and comers in the Featherweight Division but at UFC 143 he may have bitten off more than he can chew in the name of Dustin Poirier who is widely considered one of the best in the world at this weight class. Holloway may be able to hold his own in the standup but when this fight hits the mat (and it will) Poirier will teach the youngster a lesson in grappling. [ad-3573245]
Pick: Dustin Poirier -500
Edwin Figueroa (8-1): -140
Alex Caceres (6-4): +110
Two Bantamweight strikers, fresh off wins in their last fights will look to keep their roll going when they go head-to-head on Saturday night. Figueroa has an impressive MMA record but his technique is not quite up to the level of the 6-4 Caceres. With better, more technical striking and a slight edge on the ground, take Caceres by decision.
Pick: Alex Caceres +110
Henry Martinez (8-1-0): +300
Matt Riddle (5-3): -400
Greg Jackson trained Henry Martinez steps into the Octagon on very short notice to take on high level wrestler but loser of two straight fights, Matt Riddle in Welterweight action at UFC 143. Martinez’s wrestling credentials cannot be discounted nor can the fact that he trains with one of the best camps on the planet. But expect Riddle to return to what has made him successful – wrestling and to overpower Martinez on the way to victory.
Pick: Matt Riddle -400
Rafael Natal (13-3-1):-210
Michael Kuiper (11-0): +165
Rafael Natal entered the UFC with a ton of hype but has largely been disappointing, even arriving in questionable shape for two out of three of his bouts. On Saturday he takes on undefeated Michael Kuiper, a Judo Black Belt, and a fairly well rounded fighter (6 KO’s and 4 subs). Natal holds a sizable grappling edge in this fight and is the better striker as well. Add in the fact that Natal has fought by far the tougher competition in his career and this choice looks easy. Natal should win, but it likely won’t be a walk in the park.
Pick: Rafael Natal -210
Matt Brown (12-11): -350
Chris Cope (5-2): +250
Two welterweights looking to bounce back from looses square off on the Undercard of UFC 143. Brown’s style should serve him well in this fight – Cope would love to stay on the outside and pick Brown apart while Brown would love to smother Cope and close the distance. Neither fighter has looked all that impressive but Brown’s relentless style should be enough to secure victory. Brown’s weakness is his submission defense (9 losses by submission) and Cope is certainly not a submission fighter. Take Brown by TKO in this one.
Pick: Matt Brown -350
Dan Stittgen (7-1-0): +210
Stephen Thompson (5-0-0): -280
Submission specialist Dan Stittgen will look for his second win in the UFC against uber-high level kick boxer Stephen Thompson as the first fight at UFC 143. Thompson not only brings an incredible striking game to the Octagon, he carries a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu as well. Look for Thompson’s grappling chops to be enough to limit Stittgen’s submission game and for striking to be the difference in this one. Thompson has an enormous striking advantage in this fight and it should carry him to victory.
Pick: Stephen Thompson -280
