UFC 139 Predictions and gambling Picks

UFC 139 Preview and Picks

In a match for the ages, Shogun Rua takes on Dan Henderson in a battle of MMA legends. Rua is the complete package – Muay Thai and very good jiu-jitsu while Henderson is a wrestler by trade who loves to utilize his insane right hand to end fights.

UFC 139: Shogun vs. Henderson
Date/Time: Saturday, November 19, 2011, 9pm ET/6pm PT
Location: HP Pavilion, San Jose, California
Broadcast: Pay-per-view

Main Event

Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (20-5-0): -135
Dan Henderson (27-7-0): +105

Rua certainly has the technique to keep Henderson at bay – low kicks should slow Henderson down just a little bit. But Henderson is a smart guy – he will pick his spots and land the necessary strikes to secure victory. I can’t see a knockout in this one – Shogun is crafty enough to stay out of the danger zones. But I can see a Henderson victory. His ability to dumb a fight down, to wear an opponent out with dirty boxing will lead to a decision victory. It may not be pretty but Henderson’s skills match up very well with Shogun’s. In a close decision, pick the American to emerge victorious.

Pick: Dan Henderson +105

Main Card

Wanderlei Silva (33-11-1): +115
Cung Le (7-1-0): -145

Cung Le makes his UFC debut against one of the most feared strikers in MMA Wanderlei Silva. Silva has lost four of his last eight fights and will certainly be motivated to prove all of his doubters wrong. Cung Le is an elite striker – his kicks and punches are as lethal as there is in MMA. Le also has a solid wrestling background. Make no mistake about it; this fight is going to be a standup war. I like the Axe Murderer to exorcise all of his demons on Saturday and to connect with the one shot that he needs to end the fight. Le will do some damage but not near enough to put Wanderlei away.

Pick: Wanderlei Silva +115

Brian Bowles (10-1-0): +175
Urijah Faber (25-4-0): -220

Two of the most respected and well rounded Bantamweight fighters in the UFC do battle in what will be a #1 Contenders match – the winner certainly aligning himself with a title shot. Both men are technical – Bowles holding the edge in the standup department and Faber being the better wrestler. I like Faber’s speed and his ability to take a fight to the ground in this one. Faber is just a notch above Bowles in every aspect of MMA (except for striking and he’s not far behind) and should get it done in what could easily be Fight of the Night on Saturday,

Pick: Urijah Faber -220

Rick Story (13-4-0): -145
Martin Kampmann (20-6-0): +115

Martin Kampmann steps into the Octagon against striker/wrestler Rick Story at UFC 139. Kampmann has been inside the Octagon with some of the best the Welterweight division has to offer. Kampmann’s elite submission ability will win out over the power and wrestling prowess of Story in this one. Look for a Kampmann victory and a well thought out fight plan. Story will find some success in the stand up game but when the fight hits the ground it will be all Kampmann.

Pick: Martin Kampmann +115

Stephan Bonnar (13-7-0): +110
Kyle Kingsbury (11-2-0): -140

Stephan Bonner brings a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo background to the Octagon on Saturday night against Kyle Kingsbury who relies on wrestling and Muay Thai. Kingsbury has proven to be a tough customer in the past but he hasn’t faced anyone with the heart and the gas tank of Bonnar. The fact is that Bonnar simply won’t go away in this fight – nothing that Kingsbury can do will faze the American Psycho. Look for Kingsbury to gain the early edge with Bonnar picking up steam toward the end of the fight. Bonnar is looking to regain some Octagon Cred. and should be able to get it against Kingsbury.

Pick: Stephan Bonnar +110

Spike TV Card

Ryan Bader (12-2-0): -280
Jason Brilz (18-4-1): +210

Two fighters that have recently struggled do battle with the loser in serious jeopardy of getting cut from the UFC. Ryan Bader burst on the scene but has lost two straight fights and is in need of a bounce back. Jason Brilz has won only one of his last three fights but does hold a memorable victory over Antonio Rogerio Noguiera. [ad-3573245]

Bader is simple the better fighter in this match. His loss to Jon Jones was to be expected. His loss to Tito Ortiz was not. But if Bader can keep his focus he should control this fight with his top notch wrestling.

Pick: Ryan Bader -280

Tom Lawlor (7-3-0): +300
Chris Weidman (6-0-0): -400

Tom Lawlor, a TUF alum has his hands full with one of the more exciting young Middleweight prospects Chris Weidman on Saturday. While Lawlor is a tough customer, Lawlor’s striking and take down defense are not quite good enough to stifle Weidman’s inevitable take down attempts. Weidman holds victories over Jesse Bongfeldt, Alessio Sakara, and Uriah Hall in his young career – that’s good enough for me!

Pick: Chris Weidman -400

Preliminary Card

Miguel Torres (39-4-0): -300
Nick Pace (6-2-0): +220

Former WEC Bantamweight Champ Miguel Torres takes on a fighter that some view as a Bantamweight prospect on Saturday night. Torres may not quite be in that elite class anymore but his great striking and above-average grappling should serve him well in this fight. Pace is a decent all around fighter himself but against Torres, he will be outclassed just about anywhere this fight happens to go. Take the experience to prevail.

Pick: Miguel Torres -300

Rafael dos Anjos (15-5-0): +150
Gleison Tibau (23-7-0): -180

One of the biggest Lightweights in the UFC Gleison Tibau is in tough against one of the better ground practitioners in the division Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 139. Tibau will likely try to exploit his size to get this fight to the ground but once there dos Anjos should prove to be the better of the two. Wins over George Satiropoulos and Terry Etim were no fluke – dos Anjos is extremely tough to deal with. Neither fighter will win with striking, so take the better grappler in this one.

Pick: Rafael dos Anjos +150

Michael McDonald (13-1-0): -450
Alex Soto (6-0-1): +325

Alex Soto took this fight on short notice and is in for a treat against a young, hungry Michael McDonald. Soto is a tough customer but the combination of striking and submission prowess of McDonald will be too much.

Pick: Michael McDonald -450

Seth Baczynski (14-6-0): +120
Matt Brown (11-10-0): -150

Matt Brown brings a rather unimpressive MMA record to the Octagon on Saturday against a big Welterweight Seth Baczynski. Both fighters have an aggressive style – neither likes to go to the judge’s score card. Brown may get the better of the standup but when this fight hits the mat, Baczynski has the edge. Take Seth’s size and better all around game to prevail in a minor upset.

Pick: Seth Baczynski +120

Shamar Bailey (12-4-0): +220
Danny Castillo (11-4-0): -300

Both of these fighters are described as wrestlers with Castillo being the better of the two. Shamar Bailey has looked just OK since his time on The Ultimate fighter but he will have a tough time against the decent defensive style of Castillo. Look for Castillo’s strength, his defense and his take down ability to be the difference in a less-than-scintillating fight.

Pick: Danny Castillo -300