UFC 133 Evans vs Ortiz Preview & Picks
UFC 133 limps into Philadelphia this Saturday night. This fight card was among the most cursed in recent memory, as injuries to Phil Davis and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira screwed up two of the top three matchups.
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Let’s sort through the wreckage and make some picks for the remaining bouts. Time for the picks.
Promotion – Ultimate Fighting Championship
Event – UFC 133: World Bantamweight Championship – Cruz vs. Faber
Date – Saturday August 6, 2011
Time – 9pm ET/6pm PT
Venue – Philadelphia, PAWells Fargo Center
Broadcast – Pay-per-view
Bet on UFC 133
Light heavyweight: Rashad Evans (15-1-1) vs Tito Ortiz (16-8-1)
UFC 133 odds: Evans -450, Ortiz +350
In Tito Ortiz, Rashad Evans gets an easier opponent than undefeated Phil Davis, who withdrew due to injury. But should Evans still be shaking in his boots? 
Tito almost beat him in 2007. The fight ended in a draw – but only after Ortiz was penalized a point for grabbing the fence. Ortiz shocked rising star Ryan Bader with a submission win a month ago. As an injury fill-in for UFC 133, he may have the mental edge over Evans, as no one expects Tito to win.
Still, based on the pure matchup, I like Rashad Evans. Ortiz’s greatest strength is his grappling and it’s totally neutralized against Evans, whose wrestling is also top-notch. Evans is also the faster fighter – as quick and tough to hit as anyone at 205 points. Worse yet for Tito, Evans has the edge in the striking department, too. Neither guy has dynamic hands but Evans at least has significant punching power. Tito dropped Bader but has never been known as a real slugger; Evans, on the other hand, has a few spectacular knockouts to his name.
Ortiz won’t make it easy for Evans but I just don’t see him as better than Evans in any facet of the fight game – especially at his advanced age.
Pick: Evans -450
Middleweight: Vitor Belfort (19-9) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-3, 2 NC)
UFC 133 odds: Belfort -310, Akiyama +255
Belfort vs Akiyama should be the fight that saves this card. I can’t possibly imagine a dull affair here. Belfort is among the sport’s greatest knockout artists and Akiyama’s go-for-broke style almost guarantees an exciting fight every time he steps into the cage.
Unfortunately for Akiyama, his style makes him a sitting duck against Belfort. “Sexyama” has solid judo and good striking but one glaring weakness: defense. He doesn’t block punches. He’s not even that he can’t; he just doesn’t try! In all three of his UFC bouts so far, he’s gotten into a wild slugfest, eating punch after punch, staggering around like a drunken zombie.
That may have worked against a second-tier opponent like Alan Belcher, but it made Akiyama gas out and get submitted against Chris Leben. Michael Bisping didn’t knock Akiyama out but landed so many shots that he dominated him on the points.
Belfort should be the ultimate nightmare for Akiyama. Some experts feel Belfort has the best pure hands in the history of MMA. He’s amazingly fast, extremely powerful, and very aggressive when he has someone hurt. Akiyama could survive three rounds in the pocket against Bisping’s weak punches but Belfort will absolutely murder him if he doesn’t change his strategy. From what we’ve seen so far, Akiyama won’t smarten up. He seems to enjoy being in wars. That will get him knocked the eff out versus Belfort. [ad-3573245]
Pick: Belfort -310
Rory MacDonald (11-1) vs Mike Pyle (21-7-1)
UFC 133 odds: MacDonald -280, Pyle +230
Rory MacDonald, a rising star at 170 pounds, faces a gatekeeper on Saturday in Mike Pyle. The young Canadian will have to be careful against Pyle, who has a truckload of submission victories to his name.
But I don’t see Pyle as much of a threat to MacDonald, who has 10 of his 11 wins by finish – six via submission. In his last fight, MacDonald faced another elite submission fighter in Nate Diaz. MacDonald absolutely dominated Diaz, tossing him around the Octagon like a ragdoll.
Well-rounded fighters can go a long way in MMA. Look at Georges St-Pierre. MacDonald trains with GSP now and it’s starting to show. He can tap guys out, he can knock guys out, he’s very athletic in he’s in great shape. MacDonald is the total package. He only has a loss on his record because the UFC gave him Carlos Condit too early, almost like it didn’t realize at the time how good Condit was.
I think MacDonald puts away Pyle without much trouble – and sets himself up for a top-10 opponent in his next bout.
Pick: MacDonald -280
UFC 133: OFFICIAL FIGHT CARD
Main card
Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz
Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
Welterweight bout: Dennis Hallman vs. Brian Ebersole
Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera vs. Costantinos Philippou
Welterweight bout: Rory MacDonald vs. Mike Pyle
Preliminary card (televised)
Light Heavyweight bout: Matt Hamill vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Featherweight bout: Chad Mendes vs. Rani Yahya
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Bantamweight bout: Ivan Menjivar vs. Nick Pace
Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Mike Pierce
Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs. Nam Phan
Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal vs. Paul Bradley
