UFC 128 Shogun vs Jones Preview & Picks
The UFC arguably has a lot at stake Saturday night. In Jon Jones, they have the next great marketable superstar. He’s young, he’s athletic, he’s confident and he’s creative. He’s quite possibly the guy who will lead MMA to a new level of popularity. But the UFC is taking a big risk by giving him a title shot – arguably early – this Saturday against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
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Ultimate Fighting Championship Event Info
Event – UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones Date – March 19, 2011
Time – 10PM ET/7PM PT Venue – Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Broadcast – Spike / PPV
Betting: Bet on UFC 128
Here’s my pick for the main event and a few other bouts.
Mauricio Rua (19-4) vs Jon Jones (12-1)
UFC 128 odds: Rua +150, Jones -180
When Rashad Evans injured his knee, the UFC made a bold move and handed Jon Jones a light heavyweight title shot immediately after he beat Ryan Bader. At worst, he should’ve been one fight away from that opportunity. Jones has been absolutely dominant in the UFC, running through Bader, Vladimir Matyushenko, Brandon Vera and, unofficially, Matt Hamill (Jones lost via DQ but dominated that bout), among others.
On one hand, it seems Jones has nothing left to prove. He’s been absolutely untouchable, relying on an arsenal that includes dominant wresting, the longest reach in UFC history at 84 inches, creative takedowns and devastating ground and pound. Jones has walked out of every fight without a scratch.
However, ironically enough, it’s because Jones has been so perfect that I worry he’s set up for a fall this Saturday. Champion Shogun Rua is an experienced fighter who’s faced the best of the best. He’s knocked out Rampage Jackson, Chuck Liddell and Lyoto Machida, to name just a few. He has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, so he can handle himself on the ground, but we all know what his real calling card is.
Shogun is arguably the best pure striker at 205 pounds. A Muay Thai fighter, he has an amazing ability to combine devastating knockout power with combinations. He’s also very aggressive, not afraid to take chances or get involved in a war.
And that’s the operative word: war. Jon Jones has never been in one. He’s never even been punched in the face as far as I can tell. We have no idea if he can take a punch because he’s never fought an above-average striker before.
In my opinion, Jones needed one more fight before facing Shogun. A guy like Thiago Silva – an aggressive knockout artist – would’ve been just the challenge “Bones” needed. Instead, he faces arguably one of the world’s two best strikers (next to Anderson Silva) having never gotten hit before. 
I think Jonny Bones Jones will have a great career but I’d expect Saturday to be his first setback. Look for Shogun to win via knockout. Pick: Rua +150
OTHER UFC 128 FIGHTS TO CONSIDER
Urijah Faber (24-4) vs Eddie Wineland (18-6-1)
UFC 128 odds: Faber -420, Wineland +320
Let Rua over Jones be your upset pick for the night. Don’t overthink Eddie Wineland against Urijah Faber. Wineland has some knockout power but Faber is tough as nails and should ride his superior grappling to victory. Pick: Faber -420
Jim Miller (19-2) vs Kamal Shalorus (7-0-2)
UFC 128 odds: -220, Shalorus +180
Don’t get swayed by Shalorus’ undefeated record. Miller is an elite lightweight; his only losses are to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. I fully expect him to tap out Shalorus. Pick: Miller -220
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-8-2, 1 NC) vs Brendan Schaub (7-1)
UFC 128 odds: Filipovic +220, Schaub -270
Mirko Cro Cop is “back” and “has never trained like this before.” Yeah, right. The legend says this before every fight. I love Cro Cop but he’s washed up. The young pup Brendan Schaub should pound him into dust. Pick: Schaub -270
UFC 128: OFFICIAL FIGHT CARD
Main Event:
Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Maurício Rua (c) vs. Jon Jones
Main Card (Televised):
Bantamweight bout: Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland
Lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus
Middleweight bout: Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller
Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Brendan Schaub
Undercard ((Spike TV Card)):
Light Heavyweight bout: Luiz Cane vs. Eliot Marshall
Lightweight bout: Edson Barboza vs. Anthony Njokuani
Preliminary card:
Welterweight bout: Ricardo Almeida vs. Mike Pyle
Lightweight bout: Kurt Pellegrino vs. Gleison Tibau
Bantamweight bout: Joseph Benavidez vs. Ian Loveland
Featherweight bout: Erik Koch vs. Raphael Assunção
Catchweight (195 lb) bout: Nick Catone vs. Costantinos Phillipou
