UFC 125 Edgar vs Maynard Preview & Picks
2010 was Frankie Edgar’s year in the UFC. Can the lightweight champion of the world start 2011 on a similar high note? Or will the New Year belong to challenger Gray Maynard, the only man ever to beat Edgar? Time to make a pick on the main event for Saturday’s UFC 125 plus some other bouts on the card.
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Event: Event: UFC 125: Resolution
Date: January 1, 2011
Time: 10PM ET/7PM PT
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
Betting: Bet on UFC 125
UFC LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Frankie Edgar (13-1) vs Gray Maynard (10-0, 1 NC)
UFC 125 odds: Edgar +120, Maynard -150
The general consensus in betting circles is that this lightweight title fight is extremely close to call. Both Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard have similar styles, mixing boxing with outstanding wrestling and takedowns while also relying on superb fitness to wear out their opponents.
But I’m not so convinced that this is a mirror match. For one, Maynard has the clear wrestling advantage. The Michigan State product is arguably the strongest fighter in the world at 155 pounds – hence his nickname, “The Bully.” Maynard isn’t too exciting but he’s very effective at what he does, tossing opponents around the cage, leaning on them, and dominating his fights in general with brute force.
Standing up, however, I don’t think it’s fair to say Maynard is on par with Edgar. Maynard has good power but his technique is weak. He claims he’s working with lots of different boxers and that his standup has improved dramatically but I’ll believe it when I see it. So far, all we’ve seen Maynard do on his feet is throw wild, looping haymakers.
Edgar, on the other hand, is a true technician, as he proved by outboxing the outstanding boxer BJ Penn in two consecutive fights. Edgar is a master of the stick-and-move, jumping in to tag opponents with combinations before jumping back out of harm’s way. He doesn’t have huge power but he racks up points with the judges because he typically throws and lands so many more punches than his opponents.
Believe it or not, all the pressure is on the challenger here, not the champ. Maynard has the undefeated record. Maynard has the victory over Edgar. Maynard has the bigger, stronger frame. Maynard is expected to win. As we’ve seen before, Edgar relishes the underdog role. I would argue that he’s the smarter fighter and I think he’ll be too fast for Maynard this time around. Assuming Edgar can avoid getting taken down too many times, I think he pulls out the win. 
Also – as fit as Maynard is, he’s never fought five-round fight before. Edgar went the distance with Penn twice and looked like he could’ve fought five more rounds both times. So I do think Frankie’s gas tank will come in handy on Saturday night.
Pick: Edgar +120
OTHER UFC 125 FIGHTS TO CONSIDER
Chris Leben (25-6) vs Brian Stann (9-3)
UFC 125 odds: Leben -170, Stann +140
I think Chris Leben is a bad matchup for Stann. Leben’s a wild brawler and Stann, a Greg Jackson disciple, is more likely to fight conservatively. Leben won’t quit and he’s on a nice hot streak.
Pick: Leben -170
Brandon Vera (11-5) vs Thiago Silva (14-2)
UFC 125 odds: Vera +130, Silva -160
Gut check time for the former elite contender Silva in this Muay Thai battle. He’s simply more skilled and aggressive than Vera. Unless Vera smartens up and goes for the takedown, Silva should win this and possibly end Vera’s UFC career.
Pick: Silva -160
Nate Diaz (13-5) vs Dong Hyun Kim (13-0-1, 1 NC)
UFC 125 odds: Diaz -105, Kim -125
Diaz has impressed at welterweight but he generally does his best work surprising standup fighters, getting them to the ground and submitting them. I don’t think a powerful grappler like Kim is a good matchup for him.
Pick: Kim -125
Clay Guida (27-11) vs Takanori Gomi (32-6, 1 NC)
UFC 125 odds: Guida -160, Gomi +130
I hate Clay Guida’s fighting style but I can’t deny that he matches up well with Gomi. The Japanese star Gomi has tremendous punching power but Guida has a tremendous chin. Guida will close the gap, grab onto Gomi and suck the life out of him for three boring rounds.
Pick: Guida -160
