UFC 121 Preview & Picks
UFC 120 last weekend was a fun card without marquee fights. UFC 121 this Saturday, however, is the one you don’t want to miss. We’ll see a superfight between Brock Lesnar and undefeated Cain Velasquez plus the UFC debut of Jake Shields.
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Event: UFC 120: Bisping vs. Akiyama
Date: October 16, 2010
Time: 10PM ET/7PM PT
Location: O2 Arena, London, England
Broadcast: Spike TV (tape-delay)
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Let’s make some picks.
UFC HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs Cain Velasquez (8-0)
UFC 121 odds: Lesnar -140, Velasquez +110
We could’ve called this fight a year or two ago, as it was only a matter of time before these two phenoms clashed for a heavyweight title. On one hand we have Lesnar, the freak of nature, who proved his toughness over the summer when he took a major beating from Shane Carwin and rallied to choke him out. On the other hand we have the undefeated Velasquez, a coach’s dream and superbly versatile fighter. This should be fun.
Velasquez presents an interesting challenge for Lesnar. He’s smaller than Lesnar’s last two opponents, Frank Mir and Shane Carwin, but he’s dangerous in different ways. He’s very accurate with his kickboxing and, while he doesn’t have true one-punch knockout power, he’s finished seven of his eight opponents. He’s quick for a heavyweight. He has a granite jaw. While Lesnar is an NCAA Division-I wrestling champ, Velasquez is a two-time Division-I All-American himself. 
Velasquez is most famous for his conditioning. Many experts say he has the best cardio of any athlete in mixed martial arts. So we should assume his gameplan will be to stick and move, keep his motor at top speed and try to wear down Lesnar while scoring points with his strikes. Velasquez should have the edge in the striking game.
There’s just one major problem. As massive as Lesnar is, it’s not just his strength that makes him so deadly; it’s his speed. He’s actually one of the fastest heavyweights in the business. He’s a world-class athlete and the fact that he’s a champion with just six pro fights suggests that. Velasquez’s plan may be to dodge around Lesnar, but can he still do that if he’s not fast enough to escape Lesnar?
Velasquez is an outstanding wrestler but I still have to assume Lesnar can outgrapple him if and when the fight gets to the ground. Velasquez is simply not big enough to compete with Brock strength-wise. Velasquez won’t go quietly but i think size will win out here. Pick: Lesnar -140
Jake Shields (25-4-1) vs Martin Kampmann (17-3)
UFC 121 odds: Shields -250, Kampmann +210
Considered the best welterweight not in the UFC for the last three or four years, Shields finally joins MMA’s top promotion. A victory could land him a title shot against the winner of Georges St-Pierre and Josh Koscheck – but is Shields looking past his opponent this Saturday?
Martin Kampmann is a dangerous guy. As a former kickboxer and Thai boxer, he’s light years ahead of Shields in the striking game. Shields’ standup is almost non-existent by comparison. On the ground, Shields is known for his outstanding grappling and Jiu-Jitsu, but Kampmann’s ground skills are very underrated; he has six submission victories. His last opponent, Paulo Thiago, was a black belt in Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu yet Kampmann dominated him on the ground.
I think Shields gets a rude awakening here. I like the very well-rounded Kampmann to pull off the shocker. Pick: Kampmann +210
OTHER UFC 121 FIGHTS
Diego Sanchez (-110) vs Paulo Thiago (-120): Sanchez is too small to stay at welterweight. For a second straight fight, his reach disadvantage will do him in, Pick Thiago.
Tito Ortiz (+140) vs Matt Hamill (-170). Ortiz says he’s the healthiest he’s been since his days as a UFC champion. I’ll take the risk and trust him. Pick Ortiz.
Official fight card
Preliminary card
Welterweight bout: Mike Guymon vs. Daniel Roberts
Lightweight bout: Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor
Lightweight bout: Paul Sass vs. Mark Holst
Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi vs. Dong Yi Yang
Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Gilbert Yvel
Preliminary card – Spike TV
Middleweight bout: Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen
Middleweight bout: Patrick Côté vs. Tom Lawlor
Main card
Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar (c) vs Cain Velasquez
Welterweight bout: Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
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