UFC 119 Preview & Picks
There’s no title on the line at UFC 119 this Saturday but the two main events have title implications in the heavyweight and especially the light heavyweight divisions. Let’s look at the main fights on the card and make a couple picks.
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Event: UFC 119: Mir vs. Cro Cop
Date: September 25, 2010
Time: 10PM ET/7PM PT
Location: Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
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Here are my picks for the top two fights on Saturday – both of which are very important.
Frank Mir (13-5) vs Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (28-7-2)
UFC 119 odds: Mir -240, Cro Cop +200
Frank Mir finds himself at a major career crossroads. As he showed when he beat the tar out of Cheick Kongo, he’s too talented to be a second-tier guy. However, as we saw before and after that victory, when Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin beat him down, Mir can’t hang with the monsters at the top of the division.
Mir still believes he can be a champion again but, if he loses on Saturday, he may have to consider cutting down to 205 pounds (which wouldn’t be easy for a man his size). 
His opponent is the most feared heavyweight striker in MMA history: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, who made a name for himself in Japan kicking people’s heads off.
Mir is the favorite. He’s fresher and more versatile. He has the clear advantage on the ground thanks to his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt; he’s one of the best submission artists at heavyweight. Standing up, Cro Cop likely has the edge, but Mir has dramatically improved his boxing over the last couple of years.
A few years ago, I’d like Cro Cop in this matchup. All Mir’s losses are knockouts; he can be overwhelmed when guys rush him. But the current incarnation of Cro Cop has lost his killer instinct. Cro Cop looks tentative at times in the cage and that approach won’t work against Mir. If Mir is comfortable, he may catch Cro Cop with a right hand or take him down and submit him. I like the younger, fresher Mir to keep his heavyweight title hopes alive by finishing the legend Cro Cop on Saturday night. Pick: Mir -240
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-3) vs Ryan Bader (11-0)
UFC 119 odds: Nogueira +135, Bader -165
Nogueira/Bader gets secondary billing but is easily the most important fight at UFC 119. The winner will likely face Jon Jones in what could be a No. 1 contender match at light heavyweight.
Twin brother of Minotauro Nogueira, who fights one weight class above, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (or “Little Nog”) is a big-name fighter with high-profile victories on his resume. He submitted Dan Henderson and knocked out Alistair Overeem.
Bettors – and his opponents – shouldn’t confuse Little Nog with his big brother. Whereas the big fella does almost all his damage with his BJJ on the ground, Little Nog is just as dangerous standing up. Little Nog is an accomplished, technically sound boxer and has elite-level Jiu-Jitsu should the fight go to the ground.
Against rising star Ryan “Darth” Bader, you can bet the fight will end up on the canvas. The powerful Bader is an accomplished wrestler. He’s one of the biggest fighters at 205 pounds and uses his size to toss opponents around the Octagon. As he showed in his last victory over Keith Jardine, he also has very heavy hands.
Nogueira’s last bout was against Jason Brilz, a so-so fighter with solid wrestling. He gave Little Nog so much trouble that he almost stole the decision from him. If Nogueira struggled that much against Brilz, I’m not sure he can handle Bader. The man is a beast. And, even if Nogueira keeps the fight standing, Bader still has the ability to end the bout with one swing. I like the youngster to win and continue on his collision course with Jon Jones. Pick: Bader -165
Official fight card
Preliminary card
Heavyweight bout: Mark Hunt vs. Sean McCorkle
Welterweight bout: TJ Grant vs. Julio Paulino
Lightweight bout: Steve Lopez vs. Waylon Lowe
Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares vs. Pat Audinwood
Preliminary card (Spike TV)
Heavyweight bout: Matt Mitrione vs. Joey Beltran
Middleweight bout: C.B. Dollaway vs. Joe Doerksen
Main card
Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens
Lightweight bout: Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham
Welterweight bout: Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle
Light Heavyweight bout: Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipović
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