UFC 118 Preview & Picks
The UFC ends an eventful August with another major fight card and plenty at stake at UFC 118. Not only do we have the lightweight title on the line, we have ultimate pride on the line as MMA and boxing go to war.
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Event: UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2
Date: August 28, 2010
Time: 10PM ET/7PM PT
Location: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
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Here are my picks for the top three fights on Saturday – all of which are very important.
LIGHTWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP:
Frankie Edgar (12-1) vs BJ Penn (15-6-1)
UFC 118 odds: Edgar +265, Penn -325
What is BJ Penn made of? The greatest lightweight of all time looked disinterested and out of shape when he defended his title against underdog Frankie Edgar last April. He couldn’t secure any takedowns and he couldn’t even score points in the striking game, as the speedy, outstandingly conditioned challenger danced around the cage and worked the stick-and-move routine to perfection.
Penn was left embarrassed and beltless after one of MMA’s biggest upsets ever. Now, he’s out to prove Edgar’s win was a fluke. My gut tells me Penn will accomplish his goal. It’s not that Edgar isn’t any good; the little guy is a great all-around fighter who works his ass off. But when Penn cares, he’s unstoppable at 155 pounds.
Unlike Edgar, he Penn can finish a fight standing, as he has heavy hands. Even though Edgar has a great wrestling Pedigree, the long and flexible Penn has amazing Jiu-Jitsu and can submit almost anyone on the ground.
Edgar deserved his title win; I wouldn’t actually call it a fluke. At the same time, I do think his bubble bursts Saturday when a motivated, angry Penn shows up.
Pick: Penn -325
Randy Couture (18-10) vs James Toney (No record)
UFC 118 odds: Couture -700, Toney +500
The MMA versus boxing battle begins Saturday night. Randy Couture, long viewed as the sport’s ambassador, relishes the chance to be James Toney’s welcoming committee. Toney, a champion heavyweight boxer, has a 72-6-3 record but has never competed in mixed martial arts. He doesn’t care. In fact, he believes MMA is an inferior sport and that he’ll punch Couture into next year. 
Toney does literally have a puncher’s chance here. He should hit harder than any UFC fighter we’ve ever seen and, contrary to what some uneducated fans will tell you, he’s not a brawler.
Toney has good technical skills with his hands. But that still won’t save him from a beatdown on Saturday.
Unless he catches Randy with a big punch in the opening exchange, Couture will toss him on his back and bully him all night.
A few months of ground training won’t prepare Toney to face one of the greatest grapplers in MMA history. I expect Couture to pitch a shutout.
Pick: Couture -700
Kenny Florian (14-4) vs Gray Maynard (9-0, 1 NC)
UFC 118 odds: Florian -155, Maynard +125
I feel sorry for Kenny Florian. Arguably, he’s head and shoulders above everyone at lightweight except BJ Penn (sorry, Frankie). He’s an outstanding boxer, his elbows are the best in the biz and he’s a great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler. But he’s alone at No. 2. If he wins on Saturday and Penn does too, he’ll probably just lose to BJ again after that.
Gray Maynard disagrees. “The Bully,” who is undefeated and the only guy to defeat Frankie Edgar, believes he’s the next top contender at 155 pounds.
On paper, Maynard could be right. He’s been untouchable so far and wrestles as well as anyone in the division. But Maynard isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. Instead of sticking with his strength and tossing guys round the Octagon the way Georges St-Pierre or Rashad Evans do, Maynard lets his pride dictate his fights.
He gets caught up in trash talk and tries to stand and trade too often, throwing looping, hideous haymakers.
As a former law student, Florian may be the UFC’s smartest fighter. He’ll probably bait Maynard into a boxing match and pick the Bully apart. Maynard should learn a hard lesson on Saturday.
Pick: Florian -155
Official fight card
Preliminary card
Welterweight bout: Mike Pierce vs. Amilcar Alves
Welterweight bout: Nick Osipczak vs. Greg Soto
Middleweight bout: Dan Miller vs. John Salter
Preliminary card (Spike TV)
Lightweight bout: Andre Winner vs. Nik Lentz
Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Gabe Ruediger
Main card
Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis
Lightweight bout: Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard
Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda
Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. James Toney
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. B.J. Penn
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