UFC 116 Preview & Picks
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There was something poetic about top-ranked heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko falling in a Leon-Spinks-esque upset last Saturday night at Strikeforce. It represented a changing of the guard, opening the door to the world’s new top heavyweights – which are housed in the UFC.
Event: UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin
Date: Jul 03, 2010
Time: 10PM ET/7PM PT
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Broadcast: Pay-per-view and Spike TV
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The global consensus is that the winner of Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin’s heavyweight title bout won’t just crown an undisputed UFC heavyweight champ, but also the top heavyweight in all of mixed martial arts. Needless to say, this should be epic. Let’s break down the main event.
HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BOUT
Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs Shane Carwin (12-0)
UFC 115 odds: Lesnar -160, Carwin +130
Don’t be surprised if Saturday’s pay-per-view sets a new record for buys. It’s hard not to get excited over a clash between the sport’s two unstoppable monsters – the only two UFC fighters who are so big that they require custom-made glove sizes.
The problem facing bettors is that Lesnar and Carwin appear so similar. Both are accomplished collegiate wrestlers. Both generate unbelievable punching power from short distances. So how do we distinguish them from each other enough to make a pick?
Lesnar may have the slight athleticism advantage. The guy is an absolute freak, an NCAA division-1 national wrestling champion who also played on an NFL practice squad and won the UFC heavyweight title in his fourth professional fight. Don’t lump him in with WWE wrestlers. Love him or hate him, Lesnar is a world-class athlete. He’s usually around 280 pounds on fight day but “moves like a welterweight,” as Joe Rogan puts it. In terms of girth and agility, he may be superior to Carwin. The scariest thing: as Lesnar recovered from a life-threatening illness over the winter, doctors suggested he’d beaten fighting at only 60 per cent of his capacity. So what’s his ceiling? 
I give the striking edge to Shane Carwin. Whereas Lesnar has scored his knockouts from mounting and bludgeoning opponents, Carwin has demonstrated unbelievable one-punch knockout power. In fact, no opponent has survived a single round against Carwin in his 13 pro bouts. His longest fight to date came against Mir, whom he knocked out in 3:48.
It’s this devastating power that makes be believe Carwin can pull off the upset. Brock Lesnar has never truly been hit in his MMA career. He doesn’t know what it feels like to get hurt by a punch yet and Carwin can move mountains with his fists. Also, with a year-long layoff, it’s possible that Lesnar may suffer from ring rust.
Carwin has the experience edge, the standup edge and is big enough that he may be the first man to neutralize Lesnar’s wrestling. Toss in Lesnar’s potential rust and I think you have the upset formula.
Pick: Carwin +130
OTHER UFC 116 FIGHTS TO CONSIDER
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1, 2 NC) vs Chris Leben (20-6)
UFC 116 odds: Akiyama -225, Leben +185
Tough break for Akiyama. His original opponent, Wanderlei Silva, pulled out due to injury. Now, he faces a lower guy on the totem pole and thus has nothing to gain and everything to lose from this fight. Worse yet, he could get caught underestimating the powerful Leben, who may actually be a better fighter than Silva at this stage of his career. There’s no pressure at all on the brawler Leben. Go with the upset.
Pick: Leben +185
George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs Kurt Pellegrino (15-4)
UFC 116 odds: Sotiropoulos -250, Pellegrino +175
No disrespect to the solid Kurt Pellegrino – but I was disappointed to hear that he was Sotiropoulos’ next opponent. The Aussie absolutely dominated Joe Stevenson and I can’t help but think battling Pellegrino next is a lateral move at best. His versatility and reach advantage should make this an easy bout. How long before George gets a title shot?
Pick: Sotiropoulos -250
Official Fight card
MAIN CARD
- Champ Brock Lesnar vs. interim champ Shane Carwin (heavyweight title-unification bout)
- Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben
- Matt Brown vs. Chris Lytle
- Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
- Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropoulos
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
- Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer
- Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero
PRELIMINARY CARD (Un-aired)
- Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic
- Dave Branch vs. Gerald Harris
- Forrest Petz vs. Daniel Roberts
- Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola
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