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Free UFC 95 Pick: Marquardt vs Gouveia

UFC 95 Upset Alert – Marquardt vs Gouveia

One of the marquee matchups at UFC 95 features two middleweight contenders in Nate “The Great Marquardt” and Wilson Gouveia, and it is a classic matchup between a brawler and a more gifted striker.

Lately, the UFC has seen guys of the latter style make score some big upsets as the sport continues to become diversified and more talent filters in. But Marquardt is a bit more versatile than your typical old-school UFC tough guy.

The current BetUS Sportsbook online UFC odds have Marquardt as a -300 to +220 favorite over Gouveia, but this should be a close fight throughout. There is probably only one factor that could turn this fight into a blowout and that would be Gouveia’s conditioning, or lack thereof.promo/ufc 95

Marquardt is a notoriously dogged competitor who always comes into each fight in great shape and this UFC 95 battle should be no exception. A former pankration champion, Marquardt likes to clinch up with his opponent and punish them from close range while dragging the fight down to the ground for some more strikes that often finish the match.

Marquardt trains with some of the best fighters in MMA and has seen a lot in the Octagon, while Gouveia doesn’t quite have the same level of experience.

But Gouveia is still improving and still has a high ceiling to reach. He is a very good athlete who specializes in striking and has a nice arsenal of kicks. He will most likely try and pick away at Marquardt from long distance in hopes of wearing him out and taking away his leg strength to help down the stretch of the fight.

Besides the conditioning factor, the other key element of this fight might be whether or not Marquardt decides to stand up and prove a point against Gouveia or if he instead tries to turn the fight into a brawl and gets up in Gouveia’s face to make him uncomfortable. Gouveia can out-strike Marquardt, who’s been trying to diversify his game in recent fights by mixing in more kicks and other advanced strikes, but Marquardt should win this fight if he takes it to Gouveia the way he’s capable of doing.

That will most likely be the way this fight plays out because Marquardt is focused on making it back to the top of the middleweight division. Marquardt is the best bet here, but for some reason I feel that Gouveia is going to pull off the upset at UFC 95.

Upset Pick: Gouveia +220

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