Kentucky vs. Louisville Football Betting Pick
It’s an annual intra-state rivalry as the NCAA football season opens, as the University of Louisville Cardinals (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS in 2007) begins its quest to get back to a bowl game as it plays host to the University of Kentucky Wildcats (8-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS in 2007) in a game that is set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, August 31 at Papa John’s Stadium in Louisville.
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: LOUISVILLE -4.5
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
KY is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games
* KY has won 13 of its last 19 games SU
* KY has lost four of its last six games SU
* KY has covered five of its last seven road games
* KY has lost 18 of its last 23 road games SU
* KY has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* LOU has has 18 of its last 25 games SU
* LOU has covered one of its last five home games
* LOU has won 23 of its last 25 home games SU
* LOU has played four of its last five home games OVER the total
* LOU has won four of the last five meetings SU
* LOU has covered six of the last nine meetings
* Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
Curtis Pulley was set to challenge for the Kentucky QB job that had been vacated by Andre Woodson, who departed for the NFL draft. In fact, Pulley had even had the job previously, beating out Woodson before losing it back. But he got himself into too many scrapes with the law. And so Rich Brooks, who originally was going to give Pulley a chance to continue competing, looked into Pulley’s situation a little closer and dismissed him from the team about two weeks ago.
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“Sometimes for the better good of the whole, some parts have to be sacrificed,” said Brooks.
The starter will be Mike Hartline, who stands about 6’5″ and is more of a drop-back type than the mobile Pulley. This may wind up being something beneficial, because it will give Hartline more practice time with the first team, instead of creating some kind of “competition” that simply diluted everybody’s opportunity to prepare.
There is talent coming back on this team, including three starters from the offensive line, wide receiver Dicky Lyons, everyone who mattered last year in the backfield except for Rafael Little, and eight starters on a defense that was ranked in the top 25 nationally against the pass.
By contrast, Louisville brings back just nine total starters, and must replace receivers like Harry Douglas and Gary Barnidge, as well as Brian Brohm, a QB who was drafted by the Green Bay Packers. Brohm’s replacement, however, is a guy with experience – Hunter Cantwell, who played for an injured Brohm a couple of years ago and threw for 640 yards in two starts. He is something of an NFL prospect. Although coach Steve Kragthorpe has to find some go-to guys for Cantwell, there is some continuity here, as Jeff Brohm, Brian’s brother, becomes offensive coordinator.
Let’s remember some of the technical numbers here. Louisville has won seven of the last nine meetings between these teams, and is very tough at home, having won 23 of their last 25 at the stadium that is now known as Papa John’s. In addition, they are 16-6 as a home favorite since 2004. We do not expect that this team will get back to top ten level, but despite losing six starters on defense they are bringing back some athletes there, and they can take the measure of a Kentucky team that will have a much bigger adjustment period with their new quarterback.
We will lay the points with Louisville, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.
