MSU Spartans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Handicapping Preview
Virtually every media outlet and talking head in the college football business has exhausted their resources discussing the struggles of Notre Dame football. Why don’t I follow suit, if only for a few moments?
#15 Michigan State Spartans vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend IN
Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:35 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Michigan St. +170, Notre Dame -200
Spread: Michigan St. +5, Notre Dame -5
Over/Under: 52
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In recent years, the Irish have had lots of trouble changing styles and finding an identity. Now they finally have one (prolific, quick-strike offense) with a gamebreaking player (WR Michael Floyd) and a defensive leader and stalwart (LB Manti Te’o) and they are still struggling. Yes, the vaunted Irish are 0-2 so far in 2011. If head coach Brian Kelly isn’t the least popular person in northern Indiana right now, it will certainly migrate that way if the Golden Domers drop a third straight game to the Spartans this Saturday.
Michigan State, meanwhile, is a program that has really become for real under coach Mark Dantonio. The Spartans had a great season last year and have looked excellent to this point in 2011 – granted, MSU has only played Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic, but they rolled them 28-6 and 44-0, respectively. Admittedly skewed statistics after only two weeks, but the Spartans still rank third in the nation in total defense. They look very composed with veteran QB Kirk Cousins guiding the offense with the assistance of an excellent running duo in Edwin Baker and sophomore powerhouse Le’Veon Bell. Even with the ghastly, futuristic-looking Nike concept uniforms the Spartans will be donning for this game, State is a mighty enjoyable team to watch right now.
It goes without saying that the Irish desperately need to get on track. Notre Dame has the offense to gouge an MSU unit that looks dominant so far. Quarterback Tommy Rees has a strong rapport with all-world WR Floyd and played well in a loss to Michigan last week that the Irish let slip away. Simply put, the Irish couldn’t contain dynamo Michigan QB Denard Robinson; Notre Dame won’t be the first team forced to admit that. This week, Cousins is cool as a cucumber, but he doesn’t present the Michael Vick-esque match-up trouble that Robinson does. Te’o and the rest of the Irish defenders must bounce back with a vengeance at home this week, so the players and coaches can pull the nose up on this aircraft (Notre Dame’s prestige) that is rapidly losing altitude. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Crappy metaphors aside, Notre Dame will score and will at least prevent Michigan State from scoring as much as it has the first two weeks. Surprisingly, Robinson mostly hurt the Irish through the air last week, so the Irish secondary must give its collective head a shake and be prepared for a calculated Spartans attack. It’s true that Notre Dame is winless, but it has dropped two agonizingly close games to South Florida (23-20) and rival Michigan (35-31). The Irish rank tenth in the nation in passing (353 yards per game) and are getting a decent running attack out of RB Cierre Wood.
It’s hard to pick against Michigan State with as good as it has looked thus far, but the Irish surely realize they must surround the wagon in a hurry, before the microscope lens of the media gets more invasive and the calls for Kelly’s head on a platter get more acute.
Look for a good game – one where Notre Dame is motivated and plays more up to standard, combining its impressive passing attack with some defensive turnovers to grab its first win of the season in South Bend. Will all the world’s problems be solved with one win? No. But a win over a ranked Michigan State would certainly help stop the bleeding.
Trends:
Over is 7-2 in MCHST last 9 non-conference games.
MCHST are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. INDEP.
Over is 36-15 in MCHST last 51 road games.
Under is 7-3 in NOTRE last 10 non-conference games.
NOTRE are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 home games.
Road team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
MCHST are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 17
Over/Under Prediction: 44
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